The School of Odds

Nashville SC v CF Montreal

2026-07-23 00:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Nashville SC (Local)

Prediction 65.61%1.52fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -7.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.96%65.93%65.67%67.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4775%71%71%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

CF Montreal (Visit)

Prediction 13.79%7.25fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.272%
Kelly +0.315%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 7.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.93%13.73%13.88%15.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.506.536.507.4018%15%15%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.61%4.85fair odd
EV +5.09%
Edge +0.999%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.16%20.34%20.45%21.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.154.544.505.1024%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.64%EV -8.80%E -6.33%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV -6.95%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.43%EV +5.09%E +0.999%K +1.24%G +0.063%6.4%2026-07-12 08:49
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 67.60%EV -10.12%E -7.38%K -27.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.16%EV +5.09%E +0.999%K +1.24%G +0.063%8.0%2026-07-12 08:49
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -10.77%E -7.92%K -29.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV +3.03%E +0.607%K +0.758%G +0.023%8.9%2026-07-12 08:55
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.39%EV -6.84%E -4.81%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.97%EV -6.95%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -1.09%E -0.227%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 08:49
1xBet1.47I 68.03%NM 66.07%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.23I 13.83%NM 13.43%EV -0.330%E -0.046%K -0.053%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.49%EV -2.33%E -0.491%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-12 10:24
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.21%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.21%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 10:24
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -10.77%E -7.92%K -29.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -17.29%E -2.88%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -5.21%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-12 08:49
Marathon Bet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.10%EV -7.49%E -5.31%K -18.28%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.41%EV -4.19%E -0.603%K -0.704%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.48%EV -6.24%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 10:10
ReBet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -14.53%E -2.34%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -7.27%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 10:24
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 65.24%EV -9.46%E -6.86%K -24.90%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -15.91%E -2.61%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -7.27%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 12:10
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.56%EV -4.21%E -2.89%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.93%EV +2.01%E +0.272%K +0.315%G +0.006%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.51%EV -8.30%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-12 14:39
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 65.56%EV -4.21%E -2.89%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.93%EV +2.01%E +0.272%K +0.315%G +0.006%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.51%EV -8.30%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-12 14:40
Winamax (DE)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.96%EV -10.77%E -7.92%K -29.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.81%EV -24.18%E -4.40%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.23%EV -11.39%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-12 10:24
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -13.45%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 10:35
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -13.45%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 10:35
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -13.45%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 10:34
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -10.39%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -13.45%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 10:35
Betclic (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 64.27%EV -12.09%E -9.02%K -35.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.98%EV -20.73%E -3.61%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.75%EV -14.48%E -3.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-12 10:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%NM 63.35%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.38%16.9%2026-07-12 10:24