The School of Odds

Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC

2026-07-18 00:00 — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: Nashville SC (Local)

1.2778.74%Min
1.3474.53%Mean
1.3574.07%Median
1.3971.94%Max
66.36%1.507Min
70.23%1.424Max
68.87%1.452Mean
68.65%1.457Median
68.83%1.453IQM
68.90%1.451Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.39 under the IQM model: 68.83%

EV -4.33%Edge -3.11%Kelly -11.10%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Atlanta United FC (Visit)

6.0016.67%Min
7.4713.38%Mean
7.5013.33%Median
8.5511.70%Max
11.37%8.795Min
14.05%7.120Max
12.01%8.325Mean
12.16%8.225Median
12.04%8.306IQM
12.00%8.335Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 8.55 under the IQM model: 12.04%

EV +2.94%Edge +0.343%Kelly +0.389%Growth +0.011%

Option 3: Draw

4.3023.26%Min
4.7720.96%Mean
4.7021.28%Median
5.2019.23%Max
18.18%5.501Min
20.02%4.996Max
19.11%5.232Mean
19.20%5.209Median
19.13%5.227IQM
19.10%5.236Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 5.20 under the IQM model: 19.13%

EV -0.517%Edge -0.099%Kelly -0.123%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerNashville SC (Local)Atlanta United FC (Visit) ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.39I 71.94% NM 69.94%EV -4.33% E -3.11% K -11.10% G +0.000%8.55I 11.70% NM 11.37%EV +2.94% E +0.343% K +0.389% G +0.011%5.20I 19.23% NM 18.69%EV -0.517% E -0.099% K -0.123% G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-04 02:30
SportsBet1.37I 72.99% NM 69.45%EV -5.70% E -4.16% K -15.42% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.89%EV -3.69% E -0.461% K -0.527% G +0.000%5.10I 19.61% NM 18.66%EV -2.43% E -0.476% K -0.593% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-01 03:19
Betr (AU)1.38I 72.46% NM 68.77%EV -5.02% E -3.63% K -13.20% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.86%EV -3.69% E -0.461% K -0.527% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 19.37%EV -6.26% E -1.28% K -1.60% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 03:20
Marathon Bet1.35I 74.07% NM 69.10%EV -7.08% E -5.24% K -20.23% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV -3.69% E -0.461% K -0.527% G +0.000%4.85I 20.62% NM 19.24%EV -7.21% E -1.49% K -1.87% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 02:25
FanDuel1.32I 75.76% NM 70.23%EV -9.15% E -6.93% K -28.58% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.59%EV -3.69% E -0.461% K -0.527% G +0.000%5.10I 19.61% NM 18.18%EV -2.43% E -0.476% K -0.593% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-01 03:19
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07% NM 68.70%EV -7.08% E -5.24% K -20.23% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.37%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 18.93%EV -6.26% E -1.28% K -1.60% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-01 17:40
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19% NM 69.28%EV -8.46% E -6.36% K -25.63% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.29%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.43%EV -4.34% E -0.869% K -1.09% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-01 03:19
William Hill1.36I 73.53% NM 67.71%EV -6.39% E -4.70% K -17.76% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.28%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.02%EV -12.00% E -2.61% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 02:35
888sport1.36I 73.53% NM 67.71%EV -6.39% E -4.70% K -17.76% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.28%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.02%EV -12.00% E -2.61% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 02:35
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53% NM 67.71%EV -6.39% E -4.70% K -17.76% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.28%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.02%EV -12.00% E -2.61% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 02:40
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53% NM 67.71%EV -6.39% E -4.70% K -17.76% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.28%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.02%EV -12.00% E -2.61% K -3.33% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 02:35
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19% NM 68.62%EV -8.46% E -6.36% K -25.63% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.17%EV -9.71% E -1.29% K -1.49% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 19.21%EV -9.13% E -1.92% K -2.43% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-04 22:20
ReBet1.33I 75.19% NM 68.37%EV -8.46% E -6.36% K -25.63% G +0.000%7.40I 13.51% NM 12.29%EV -10.91% E -1.47% K -1.70% G +0.000%4.70I 21.28% NM 19.35%EV -10.08% E -2.15% K -2.73% G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-30 23:09
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19% NM 68.01%EV -8.46% E -6.36% K -25.63% G +0.000%7.10I 14.08% NM 12.74%EV -14.52% E -2.05% K -2.38% G +0.000%4.70I 21.28% NM 19.25%EV -10.08% E -2.15% K -2.73% G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-05 08:30
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19% NM 67.61%EV -8.46% E -6.36% K -25.63% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 12.85%EV -15.73% E -2.25% K -2.62% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.55%EV -12.00% E -2.61% K -3.33% G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-01 03:19
Betclic (FR)1.28I 78.13% NM 67.39%EV -11.90% E -9.30% K -42.49% G +0.000%6.75I 14.81% NM 12.78%EV -18.74% E -2.78% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.35I 22.99% NM 19.83%EV -16.78% E -3.86% K -5.01% G +0.000%15.9%2026-06-30 23:18
Winamax (DE)1.29I 77.52% NM 67.62%EV -11.21% E -8.69% K -38.66% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 13.42%EV -21.75% E -3.35% K -3.95% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 18.96%EV -12.00% E -2.61% K -3.33% G +0.000%14.6%2026-06-30 23:09
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74% NM 66.36%EV -12.59% E -9.91% K -46.62% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 14.05%EV -27.76% E -4.63% K -5.55% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 19.60%EV -17.74% E -4.12% K -5.37% G +0.000%18.7%2026-06-30 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerNashville SC (Local)Atlanta United FC (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.28I 78.13%6.60I 15.15%4.20I 23.81%17.1%2026-06-30 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:39