The School of Odds
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Minnesota United FC v St. Louis City SC

2026-10-17 20:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota United FC (Local)

Prediction 41.78%2.39fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.42%41.78%41.78%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.232.232.3046.30%44.75%44.84%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis City SC (Visit)

Prediction 32.35%3.09fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.986%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.21%32.35%32.35%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.882.883.0036.36%34.67%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.789%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%25.88%25.88%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.603.603.7528.99%27.75%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Minnesota United FC (Local): 41.78%; St. Louis City SC (Visit): 32.35%; Draw: 25.88%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.75, with an expected value of -2.96%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.02%EV -3.92%E -1.70%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%EV -2.96%E -0.986%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.96%E -0.789%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-10 21:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.02%EV -3.92%E -1.70%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%EV -2.96%E -0.986%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.96%E -0.789%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-10 21:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.02%EV -3.92%E -1.70%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%EV -2.96%E -0.986%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.96%E -0.789%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-10 21:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.19%E -2.14%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 21:35
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:35
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:35
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:35
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:34
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -6.84%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 21:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -8.09%E -3.68%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -7.81%E -2.74%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.13%E -2.29%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 21:35
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.09%E -3.68%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -9.43%E -3.37%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 21:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.09%E -3.68%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -9.43%E -3.37%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-10 21:35
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.47%EV -9.77%E -4.52%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -11.05%E -4.02%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.96%EV -10.72%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-10 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 39.81%2.22I 45.05%NM 33.89%2.86I 34.97%NM 26.31%32.9%2026-10-11 01:01