Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC

2026-08-20 00:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota United FC (Local)

Prediction 55.67%1.80fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -5.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.06%55.69%55.67%56.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.661.671.7263.29%60.09%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta United FC (Visit)

Prediction 20.86%4.79fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%20.74%20.86%24.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.434.334.334.7029.15%23.11%23.09%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV +2.79%
Edge +0.637%
Kelly +0.825%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 4.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%23.57%23.47%25.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.273.894.004.3830.58%25.71%25.00%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Minnesota United FC (Local): 55.67%; Atlanta United FC (Visit): 20.86%; Draw: 23.47%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.38, producing a positive expected value of +2.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.80%EV -4.80%E -2.81%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 21.02%EV -3.63%E -0.785%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.18%EV +2.79%E +0.637%K +0.825%G +0.023%3.0%2026-08-02 12:20
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.80%E -2.81%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -4.04%E -0.879%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 11:40
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.24%E -2.47%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -6.13%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 11:40
Betr (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -4.24%E -2.47%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -8.22%E -1.87%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 11:44
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.03%E -4.21%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.13%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 11:44
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.03%E -4.21%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.13%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 11:44
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -8.14%E -4.93%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -9.68%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:04
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -8.14%E -4.93%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -9.68%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:04
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -8.14%E -4.93%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -9.68%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:04
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -8.14%E -4.93%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -9.68%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:04
Marathon Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.93%EV -7.03%E -4.21%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -1.96%E -0.417%K -0.529%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.20%EV -9.42%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 14:09
ReBet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.14%E -4.93%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -8.22%E -1.87%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 11:45
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -7.03%E -4.21%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -12.39%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 11:44
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 54.83%EV -8.14%E -4.93%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -10.30%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-02 11:50
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.86%EV -10.92%E -6.83%K -18.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -14.47%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.73%EV -13.17%E -3.56%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 11:40
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 54.71%EV -12.04%E -7.62%K -20.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.61%EV -16.56%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.68%EV -14.34%E -3.93%K -5.41%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-02 11:45
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 50.06%EV -7.03%E -4.21%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 24.37%EV -28.45%E -8.29%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 25.57%EV -23.26%E -7.11%K -10.25%G +0.000%19.6%2026-08-02 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25