The School of Odds

LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC

2026-07-23 02:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

LA Galaxy (Local)

Prediction 47.60%2.10fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.58%47.51%47.60%48.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.921.942.0257%52%51%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

St. Louis City SC (Visit)

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV -0.667%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.258%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.78%27.75%28.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.5833%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.65%4.06fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.462%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%24.71%24.65%25.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.453.703.674.0029%27%27%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.02I 49.50%NM 48.03%EV -3.85%E -1.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.10%EV -0.667%E -0.186%K -0.258%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%EV -3.85%E -0.987%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-12 10:24
SportsBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.23%EV -3.85%E -1.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.91%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -1.38%E -0.346%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 09:05
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.80%E -2.40%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.85%E -0.987%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 09:04
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.80%E -2.40%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.85%E -0.987%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 09:05
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.18%E -3.68%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.32%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-12 09:04
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.18%E -3.68%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 10:09
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.18%E -3.68%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 10:09
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.18%E -3.68%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 10:09
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.18%E -3.68%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 10:09
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -7.66%E -3.95%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -4.55%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 10:19
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.08%E -4.76%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 10:25
betano_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.08%E -4.76%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -8.44%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 10:24
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.08%E -4.76%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.99%E -4.51%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 09:05
ReBet1.88I 53.19%NM 48.36%EV -10.51%E -5.59%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -5.66%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-12 11:34
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 48.73%EV -11.94%E -6.45%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -7.05%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -8.78%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-12 12:10
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.48%EV -14.32%E -7.96%K -17.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -11.21%E -3.50%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 11:34
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 48.70%EV -15.75%E -8.90%K -20.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.52%EV -9.82%E -3.02%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 24.77%EV -14.20%E -4.08%K -5.73%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-12 11:34
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 47.91%EV -16.22%E -9.22%K -21.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.65%EV -15.37%E -5.04%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.44%EV -14.94%E -4.33%K -6.10%G +0.000%18.6%2026-07-12 11:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 47.60%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.20%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.20%16.7%2026-07-12 11:39