Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

LA Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes

2026-08-20 02:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

LA Galaxy (Local)

Prediction 38.49%2.60fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.58%38.59%38.49%39.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.362.342.5045.87%42.44%42.74%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Jose Earthquakes (Visit)

Prediction 37.48%2.67fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.89%37.34%37.48%38.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.452.5642.55%40.67%40.82%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.03%4.16fair odd
EV +2.85%
Edge +0.666%
Kelly +0.869%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.67%24.07%24.03%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.904.2828.57%26.12%25.64%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: LA Galaxy (Local): 38.49%; San Jose Earthquakes (Visit): 37.48%; Draw: 24.03%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.28, producing a positive expected value of +2.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.46I 40.65%NM 39.44%EV -5.32%E -2.16%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.90%EV -4.05%E -1.58%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.67%EV +2.85%E +0.666%K +0.869%G +0.025%3.1%2026-08-02 12:59
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -3.78%E -1.51%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -6.30%E -2.52%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.88%E -0.969%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 11:25
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.57%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.80%EV -6.30%E -2.52%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -3.88%E -0.969%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 11:20
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -3.78%E -1.51%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -6.30%E -2.52%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 11:24
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -5.70%E -2.33%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57%EV -6.30%E -2.52%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 11:24
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.13%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 12:54
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.13%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 12:55
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.13%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 12:55
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.13%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 12:55
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 11:23
Marathon Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.37%EV -6.47%E -2.66%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.06%EV -10.61%E -2.85%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 11:40
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.06%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.67%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28%EV -11.09%E -3.00%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 11:25
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -13.40%E -5.96%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.71%EV -10.05%E -4.19%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -12.29%E -3.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 11:20
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -10.80%E -4.54%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -13.49%E -3.75%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-02 11:25
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.26%EV -15.32%E -6.97%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.75%EV -11.92%E -5.07%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.99%EV -13.49%E -3.75%K -5.19%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 11:24
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 39.51%EV -16.09%E -7.38%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.89%EV -10.05%E -4.19%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.61%EV -15.89%E -4.54%K -6.36%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-02 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25