The School of Odds

Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire

2026-07-22 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Inter Miami CF (Local)

Prediction 60.76%1.65fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -4.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.44%61.00%60.76%63.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.511.6069%66%66%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 19.12%5.23fair odd
EV +0.566%
Edge +0.108%
Kelly +0.133%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.36%18.95%19.12%21.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.774.805.2625%21%21%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.12%4.97fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.511%
Kelly +0.636%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.36%20.04%20.12%21.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.574.605.1024%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -7.64%E -5.03%K -14.70%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.67%EV -2.49%E -0.489%K -0.608%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.67%EV +2.61%E +0.511%K +0.636%G +0.017%5.0%2026-07-12 08:44
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -10.07%E -6.81%K -20.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.36%EV -2.49%E -0.489%K -0.608%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.36%EV +2.61%E +0.511%K +0.636%G +0.017%6.8%2026-07-12 08:45
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.86%E -5.90%K -17.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -4.40%E -0.881%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV +0.594%E +0.119%K +0.149%G +0.001%6.7%2026-07-12 08:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.86%E -5.90%K -17.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -4.40%E -0.881%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV +0.594%E +0.119%K +0.149%G +0.001%6.7%2026-07-12 08:44
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.64%E -5.03%K -14.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.40%E -0.881%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -1.42%E -0.289%K -0.364%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 08:45
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 60.41%EV -4.00%E -2.53%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -5.36%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -5.44%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 09:05
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.41%EV -4.00%E -2.53%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -5.36%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -5.44%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 09:04
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 60.64%EV -2.78%E -1.74%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.45%EV +0.566%E +0.108%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.91%EV -6.65%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-12 08:44
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 60.91%EV -8.86%E -5.90%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -9.18%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 60.91%EV -8.86%E -5.90%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -9.18%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 10:20
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.50%EV -12.50%E -8.68%K -28.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -12.05%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-12 08:44
ReBet1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -7.64%E -5.03%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -12.05%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -9.47%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 09:04
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 60.13%EV -8.86%E -5.90%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.82%EV -13.01%E -2.86%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -9.47%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-12 12:10
Winamax (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.38%EV -10.68%E -7.27%K -22.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.78%EV -19.70%E -4.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.84%EV -11.48%E -2.61%K -3.38%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 09:04
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 59.10%EV -5.82%E -3.75%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -8.23%E -1.71%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -15.50%E -3.69%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-12 08:54
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -7.03%E -4.60%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.23%E -1.71%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -15.50%E -3.69%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-12 08:54
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -7.03%E -4.60%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.23%E -1.71%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -15.50%E -3.69%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-12 08:54
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -7.03%E -4.60%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.23%E -1.71%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -15.50%E -3.69%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-12 08:54
Betclic (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 59.44%EV -11.89%E -8.20%K -26.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.04%EV -17.79%E -4.14%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.52%EV -15.50%E -3.69%K -4.84%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-12 09:03
Winamax (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.44%EV -12.50%E -8.68%K -28.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.04%EV -23.52%E -5.88%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.52%EV -17.51%E -4.27%K -5.65%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-12 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 58.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.99%16.2%2026-07-12 09:10