Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes

2026-08-30 00:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Houston Dynamo (Local)

Prediction 51.24%1.95fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.61%51.24%51.24%51.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.811.821.8757.47%55.19%54.95%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Jose Earthquakes (Visit)

Prediction 24.54%4.07fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.776%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%24.54%24.54%24.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.763.803.9528.17%26.58%26.32%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.22%4.13fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.778%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%24.22%24.22%24.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.823.854.0027.40%26.17%25.97%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Houston Dynamo (Local): 51.24%; San Jose Earthquakes (Visit): 24.54%; Draw: 24.22%. For San Jose Earthquakes (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -3.07%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -4.18%E -2.24%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -3.07%E -0.776%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -3.11%E -0.778%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-20 14:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -4.18%E -2.24%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -3.07%E -0.776%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -3.11%E -0.778%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-20 14:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -4.18%E -2.24%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -3.07%E -0.776%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -3.11%E -0.778%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-20 14:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -6.23%E -3.41%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -7.97%E -2.13%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.17%E -2.45%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 14:29
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:14
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:14
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:14
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:13
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -6.75%E -3.71%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.75%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.75%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 14:14
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -8.28%E -4.63%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -10.43%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -9.17%E -2.45%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 14:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.79%EV -8.80%E -4.94%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -10.43%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -10.38%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-20 14:14
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.90%EV -9.82%E -5.58%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.65%E -3.24%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.38%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-20 14:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.84%EV -10.85%E -6.23%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -12.88%E -3.63%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.24%EV -11.59%E -3.18%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-20 14:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.84%EV -10.85%E -6.23%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%EV -12.88%E -3.63%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.24%EV -11.59%E -3.18%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-20 14:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 49.55%3.57I 28.01%NM 25.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%9.1%2026-08-20 20:00

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