The School of Odds

Houston Dynamo v D.C. United

2026-07-23 00:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Houston Dynamo (Local)

Prediction 55.80%1.79fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.18%55.81%55.80%57.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.521.651.671.7566%61%60%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

D.C. United (Visit)

Prediction 20.06%4.99fair odd
EV -0.707%
Edge -0.143%
Kelly -0.179%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.23%20.11%20.06%21.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.514.504.9524%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.14%4.14fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -0.799%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.97%24.08%24.14%24.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.803.754.0129%26%27%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%EV -2.35%E -1.34%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.45%EV -4.92%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.17%EV -3.20%E -0.799%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-12 08:44
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.14%E -3.02%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.73%E -2.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.45%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 08:59
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -5.14%E -3.02%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -11.74%E -2.67%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 08:54
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -5.14%E -3.02%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -11.74%E -2.67%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 08:54
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -5.14%E -3.02%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -11.74%E -2.67%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 08:54
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -5.14%E -3.02%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -11.74%E -2.67%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 08:54
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -0.707%E -0.143%K -0.179%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 09:05
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -0.707%E -0.143%K -0.179%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 09:04
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.26%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -5.72%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -3.45%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 09:05
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -9.73%E -2.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.45%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 08:59
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -7.93%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.73%E -2.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 10:17
betano_uk1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -7.93%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.73%E -2.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 10:20
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -9.60%E -5.93%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.73%E -2.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 09:04
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -9.60%E -5.93%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -15.75%E -3.75%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-12 09:05
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -10.16%E -6.31%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.73%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -3.45%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-12 08:59
ReBet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -10.16%E -6.31%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -5.72%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-12 08:29
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.04%EV -12.95%E -8.30%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.33%EV -13.75%E -3.20%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.63%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-12 08:29
Betclic (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 56.06%EV -14.06%E -9.13%K -26.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.62%EV -11.74%E -2.67%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.32%EV -14.31%E -4.03%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-12 08:29
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.40%EV -15.18%E -9.99%K -29.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.54%EV -17.76%E -4.33%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.06%EV -15.52%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-12 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.