Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union

2026-10-31 18:00 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Cincinnati (Local)

Prediction 29.63%3.38fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.06%29.63%29.63%29.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.153.2533.90%31.90%31.75%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Union (Visit)

Prediction 47.61%2.10fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.14%47.61%47.61%47.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.951.962.0254.05%51.15%51.02%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.495%
Kelly -0.644%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.46%22.76%22.76%23.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.084.104.3026.32%24.54%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Cincinnati (Local): 29.63%; Philadelphia Union (Visit): 47.61%; Draw: 22.76%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -2.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.82%EV -3.82%E -1.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%EV -2.13%E -0.495%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.82%EV -3.82%E -1.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%EV -2.13%E -0.495%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.82%EV -3.82%E -1.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%EV -2.13%E -0.495%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 18:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.15%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -8.95%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 18:40
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
Bally Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.68%E -3.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.38%EV -7.63%E -3.93%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.95%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 18:31
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.00%EV -8.11%E -4.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -11.23%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 18:31
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.00%EV -8.11%E -4.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -11.23%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 18:31
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.29%EV -10.01%E -5.30%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -11.23%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.67%EV -12.60%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.30%EV -11.92%E -6.44%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.03%EV -13.51%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-24 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.50%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.32%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.18%12.0%2026-10-24 18:05