Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Cincinnati v New York City FC

2026-08-19 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Cincinnati (Local)

Prediction 44.76%2.23fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.27%44.68%44.76%45.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.042.052.1352.63%48.99%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York City FC (Visit)

Prediction 31.57%3.17fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.44%31.49%31.57%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.912.903.0537.74%34.34%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.68%4.22fair odd
EV +3.22%
Edge +0.740%
Kelly +0.960%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%23.83%23.68%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.863.904.3631.25%25.89%25.64%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Cincinnati (Local): 44.76%; New York City FC (Visit): 31.57%; Draw: 23.68%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.36, producing a positive expected value of +3.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.13I 46.95%NM 45.53%EV -4.67%E -2.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.22%EV -4.98%E -1.66%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.24%EV +3.22%E +0.740%K +0.960%G +0.031%3.1%2026-08-02 12:04
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.18%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%EV -3.72%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.30%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 11:20
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.71%EV -5.11%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.59%EV -5.30%E -1.77%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -5.30%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 11:25
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.30%E -1.77%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.30%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 12:25
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.30%E -1.77%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.30%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 11:24
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.30%E -1.77%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.30%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 11:23
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.09%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 12:54
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.09%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 12:55
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.09%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 12:55
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.09%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 12:55
Marathon Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.30%E -1.77%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -10.03%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 11:40
LeoVegas1.98I 50.51%NM 45.38%EV -11.38%E -5.75%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.46%E -2.92%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.64%EV -10.03%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 12:04
ReBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.44%EV -5.93%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -11.22%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 11:25
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -11.61%E -4.15%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.22%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-02 11:25
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.50%EV -13.17%E -6.79%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.97%EV -10.03%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -11.22%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-02 11:20
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 45.22%EV -14.96%E -7.87%K -16.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -13.19%E -4.80%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.54%EV -13.59%E -3.72%K -5.13%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-02 11:24
Betclic (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.27%EV -11.38%E -5.75%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.58%EV -16.35%E -6.17%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.15%EV -24.24%E -7.57%K -11.02%G +0.000%19.5%2026-08-02 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25