Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

D.C. United v New England Revolution

2026-08-19 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

D.C. United (Local)

Prediction 46.25%2.16fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%46.26%46.25%47.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.982.002.0654.35%50.60%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New England Revolution (Visit)

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%28.19%28.27%29.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.833.243.253.4035.34%30.89%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.49%3.92fair odd
EV +1.94%
Edge +0.486%
Kelly +0.647%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.55%25.49%27.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.073.603.604.0032.57%27.75%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: D.C. United (Local): 46.25%; New England Revolution (Visit): 28.27%; Draw: 25.49%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 47.07%EV -4.73%E -2.30%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -4.45%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV +1.94%E +0.486%K +0.647%G +0.013%3.1%2026-08-02 12:10
SportsBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.04%EV -6.58%E -3.26%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.15%E -0.830%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 11:44
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -4.43%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 11:44
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.70%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 11:44
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.70%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 12:25
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.82%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -5.70%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 11:49
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.66%E -2.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -7.28%E -2.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -8.25%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 11:49
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.25%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:04
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.25%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:04
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.25%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:04
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.25%E -2.29%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:04
ReBet1.94I 51.55%NM 47.01%EV -10.28%E -5.30%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.30%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -9.53%E -2.68%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 11:45
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -11.21%E -5.84%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -9.53%E -2.68%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 14:05
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -11.67%E -6.11%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -10.80%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-02 11:49
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.86%EV -13.06%E -6.94%K -14.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -10.96%E -3.48%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -10.80%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 11:45
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.02%EV -14.91%E -8.10%K -17.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.08%EV -12.07%E -3.50%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 11:45
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 43.15%EV -10.28%E -5.30%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 29.58%EV -20.00%E -7.07%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 27.27%EV -21.76%E -7.09%K -10.51%G +0.000%19.5%2026-08-02 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25