Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Fire v New England Revolution

2026-09-13 21:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Fire (Local)

Prediction 55.96%1.79fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -6.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.22%55.96%55.96%56.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.671.7162.50%60.17%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New England Revolution (Visit)

Prediction 21.24%4.71fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.75%21.24%21.24%21.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.374.404.6024.39%22.87%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.80%4.39fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -0.960%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%22.80%22.80%23.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.054.104.2525.97%24.67%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chicago Fire (Local): 55.96%; New England Revolution (Visit): 21.24%; Draw: 22.80%. For New England Revolution (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.60, with an expected value of -2.29%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.37%EV -4.30%E -2.52%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -2.29%E -0.498%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV -3.12%E -0.734%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 21:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.37%EV -4.30%E -2.52%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -2.29%E -0.498%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV -3.12%E -0.734%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.37%EV -4.30%E -2.52%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -2.29%E -0.498%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV -3.12%E -0.734%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 21:44
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:45
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:45
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:45
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:44
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -6.54%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 21:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.42%E -0.981%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.82%E -2.20%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:00
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.73%E -2.29%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -9.96%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.79%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -11.10%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 21:45
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.36%EV -9.34%E -5.76%K -15.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.79%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -12.24%E -3.18%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-03 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.38%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -12.91%E -3.15%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -12.24%E -3.18%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.38%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -12.91%E -3.15%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -12.24%E -3.18%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 48.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.32%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.89%19.2%2026-09-04 02:25