The School of Odds

CF Montreal v Toronto FC

2026-07-16 23:30 — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: CF Montreal (Local)

Odds
1.7258.14%Min
1.7955.83%Mean
1.8055.56%Median
1.8653.76%Max
Consensus probabilities
50.35%1.986Min
52.14%1.918Max
51.48%1.943Mean
51.57%1.939Median
51.51%1.942IQM
51.52%1.941Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.86 under the IQM model: 51.51%

EV -4.20%Edge -2.26%Kelly -4.88%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Toronto FC (Visit)

Odds
3.5028.57%Min
3.8126.27%Mean
3.8026.32%Median
4.1624.04%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.31%4.290Min
25.17%3.972Max
23.91%4.183Mean
23.70%4.220Median
23.81%4.200IQM
23.85%4.193Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.16 under the IQM model: 23.81%

EV -0.949%Edge -0.228%Kelly -0.300%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.5528.17%Min
3.7226.89%Mean
3.6327.59%Median
4.0025.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.59%4.238Min
25.49%3.923Max
24.61%4.063Mean
24.73%4.044Median
24.68%4.051IQM
24.63%4.060Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.00 under the IQM model: 24.68%

EV -1.26%Edge -0.316%Kelly -0.421%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerCF Montreal (Local) ▼Toronto FC (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.86I 53.76% NM 52.14%EV -4.20% E -2.26% K -4.88% G +0.000%4.16I 24.04% NM 23.31%EV -0.949% E -0.228% K -0.300% G +0.000%3.95I 25.32% NM 24.55%EV -2.50% E -0.632% K -0.847% G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-05 13:10
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05% NM 50.99%EV -4.71% E -2.55% K -5.55% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.82%EV -9.52% E -2.51% K -3.40% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 24.19%EV -3.73% E -0.957% K -1.29% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-30 15:09
SportsBet1.83I 54.64% NM 51.57%EV -5.74% E -3.14% K -6.92% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.84%EV -9.52% E -2.51% K -3.40% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.59%EV -1.26% E -0.316% K -0.421% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-30 15:09
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56% NM 51.35%EV -7.29% E -4.05% K -9.11% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.32%EV -9.52% E -2.51% K -3.40% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.32%EV -6.20% E -1.63% K -2.21% G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-30 20:49
William Hill1.80I 55.56% NM 50.98%EV -7.29% E -4.05% K -9.11% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.53%EV -7.14% E -1.83% K -2.46% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 03:10
888sport1.80I 55.56% NM 50.98%EV -7.29% E -4.05% K -9.11% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.53%EV -7.14% E -1.83% K -2.46% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 03:10
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56% NM 50.98%EV -7.29% E -4.05% K -9.11% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.53%EV -7.14% E -1.83% K -2.46% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 03:10
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56% NM 50.98%EV -7.29% E -4.05% K -9.11% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.53%EV -7.14% E -1.83% K -2.46% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 03:09
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56% NM 50.98%EV -7.29% E -4.05% K -9.11% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.53%EV -7.14% E -1.83% K -2.46% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.49%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 06:50
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87% NM 52.12%EV -7.81% E -4.36% K -9.88% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.32%EV -4.76% E -1.19% K -1.59% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.55%EV -6.20% E -1.63% K -2.21% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 13:10
ReBet1.79I 55.87% NM 50.64%EV -7.81% E -4.36% K -9.88% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 24.17%EV -10.71% E -2.86% K -3.89% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.18%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%10.3%2026-06-30 15:09
FanDuel1.77I 56.50% NM 52.09%EV -8.84% E -4.99% K -11.47% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.26%EV -9.52% E -2.51% K -3.40% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.64%EV -3.73% E -0.957% K -1.29% G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-30 15:10
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14% NM 51.22%EV -9.87% E -5.64% K -13.15% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 24.22%EV -11.90% E -3.22% K -4.41% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 24.56%EV -9.90% E -2.71% K -3.74% G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-04 03:20
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14% NM 51.21%EV -9.87% E -5.64% K -13.15% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 24.89%EV -14.28% E -3.97% K -5.49% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 23.90%EV -7.43% E -1.98% K -2.70% G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-01 00:29
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14% NM 50.35%EV -9.87% E -5.64% K -13.15% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 25.17%EV -16.66% E -4.76% K -6.67% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 24.48%EV -11.14% E -3.09% K -4.28% G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-30 17:19
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14% NM 50.61%EV -11.41% E -6.63% K -15.85% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 24.87%EV -16.66% E -4.76% K -6.67% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 24.52%EV -12.37% E -3.48% K -4.85% G +0.000%14.9%2026-06-30 17:39
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82% NM 50.75%EV -12.44% E -7.32% K -17.77% G +0.000%3.58I 27.93% NM 24.10%EV -14.76% E -4.12% K -5.72% G +0.000%3.43I 29.15% NM 25.15%EV -15.33% E -4.47% K -6.31% G +0.000%15.9%2026-06-30 23:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerCF Montreal (Local)Toronto FC (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%3.50I 28.57%3.35I 29.85%16.6%2026-06-30 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-06-30 15:39