The School of Odds

CF Montreal v D.C. United

2026-08-15 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

CF Montreal (Local)

Prediction 41.94%2.38fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.23%41.92%41.88%43.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.202.3150.00%45.77%45.45%43.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

D.C. United (Visit)

Prediction 31.77%3.15fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.489%
Kelly -0.722%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.58%31.73%31.76%32.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.1036.36%34.54%34.48%32.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.29%3.80fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.516%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.34%26.36%27.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.283.473.443.7530.49%28.78%29.07%26.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.96%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.27%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.77%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:10
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.64%EV -3.53%E -1.54%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.47%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -2.73%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-26 11:10
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -1.42%E -0.378%K -0.516%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 11:25
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -2.73%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 11:25
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 11:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.36%E -1.49%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 11:14
Marathon Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.81%EV -6.47%E -2.90%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.71%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.46%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 13:10
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.73%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -13.25%E -4.01%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:45
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.73%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -13.25%E -4.01%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:45
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.73%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -13.25%E -4.01%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:45
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.73%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -13.25%E -4.01%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:45
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.82%E -4.57%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -12.64%E -4.59%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 11:15
ReBet2.13I 46.95%NM 42.71%EV -10.66%E -5.01%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.84%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.45%EV -9.57%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:11
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 42.40%EV -11.08%E -5.23%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -9.46%E -3.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -9.31%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 11:15
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.92%E -5.68%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-26 11:10
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -16.11%E -8.06%K -16.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -12.64%E -4.59%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -10.62%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-26 11:09
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.12%EV -16.11%E -8.06%K -16.11%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.58%EV -10.41%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.29%EV -13.77%E -4.20%K -6.04%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-26 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 42.41%2.78I 35.97%NM 30.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%16.7%2026-07-26 11:15