The School of Odds
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Austin FC v Portland Timbers

2026-11-08 00:00 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin FC (Local)

Prediction 35.16%2.84fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.05%35.16%35.16%35.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.642.652.7540.32%37.84%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Portland Timbers (Visit)

Prediction 39.99%2.50fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%39.99%39.99%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.332.4045.45%43.05%42.92%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.628%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.50%24.85%24.85%24.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.753.9528.57%26.69%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Austin FC (Local): 35.16%; Portland Timbers (Visit): 39.99%; Draw: 24.85%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -1.85%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV -3.31%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -1.85%E -0.469%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-01 06:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV -3.31%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -1.85%E -0.469%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV -3.31%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -4.02%E -1.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -1.85%E -0.469%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 06:55
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -6.82%E -2.57%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.99%EV -6.82%E -2.93%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 06:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -8.58%E -3.30%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 06:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -8.58%E -3.30%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 06:55
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -8.58%E -3.30%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 06:55
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -10.34%E -4.05%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-01 06:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.26%EV -12.80%E -5.16%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.75%EV -12.02%E -5.46%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%14.3%2026-11-01 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 38.52%2.33I 42.92%NM 36.70%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.78%16.9%2026-11-01 06:55