The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Austin FC v Philadelphia Union

2026-08-23 00:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin FC (Local)

Prediction 35.08%2.85fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.54%35.08%35.08%35.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.652.7540.82%38.20%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Union (Visit)

Prediction 38.73%2.58fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%38.73%38.73%39.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.362.402.4845.05%42.29%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.841%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.83%26.19%26.19%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.553.7030.77%28.59%28.17%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Austin FC (Local): 35.08%; Philadelphia Union (Visit): 38.73%; Draw: 26.19%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -3.11%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.06%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.88%EV -3.94%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.841%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-13 01:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.06%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.88%EV -3.94%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.841%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-13 01:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.06%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.88%EV -3.94%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.841%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-13 01:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 01:30
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:55
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:54
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:55
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:55
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.04%E -2.93%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:55
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.96%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-13 00:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-13 05:29
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -10.91%E -4.74%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-13 07:44
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.16%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -9.75%E -4.18%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-13 01:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -10.91%E -4.74%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -12.28%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-13 00:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -10.91%E -4.74%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -12.28%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-13 00:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -12.85%E -5.71%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-13 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.54%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.89%EV -14.01%E -6.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.57%EV -14.89%E -4.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-13 07:48
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.32%EV -14.05%E -5.74%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -12.85%E -5.71%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.22%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-13 07:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 36.51%1.92I 52.08%NM 32.71%2.04I 49.02%NM 30.78%59.2%2026-08-13 07:35

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.