Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin FC v Minnesota United FC

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin FC (Local)

Prediction 40.78%2.45fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.03%40.84%40.78%41.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.282.302.3748.78%43.95%43.48%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota United FC (Visit)

Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.326%
Kelly -0.474%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.95%30.89%30.97%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.023.003.2037.04%33.07%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.947%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%28.27%28.25%29.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.263.253.4234.48%30.67%30.77%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Austin FC (Local): 40.78%; Minnesota United FC (Visit): 30.92%; Draw: 28.29%. For Minnesota United FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.95%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.42%EV -1.35%E -0.424%K -0.618%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -4.09%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-22 01:20
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.80%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.96%EV -3.83%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.24%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-22 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -4.16%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -1.04%E -0.326%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 00:45
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -4.16%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -1.04%E -0.326%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 00:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -4.16%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -1.04%E -0.326%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -4.16%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -1.04%E -0.326%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 00:45
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -4.16%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-20 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.43%EV -4.98%E -2.14%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.35%EV -1.66%E -0.523%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.22%EV -3.24%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 23:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.43%EV -4.98%E -2.14%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.35%EV -1.66%E -0.523%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.22%EV -3.24%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 23:35
GTbets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.90%EV -4.98%E -2.14%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.74%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -4.93%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 01:15
MyBookie.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.50%EV -4.98%E -2.14%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.25%EV -6.61%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.25%EV -5.50%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-20 11:25
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.76%EV -5.38%E -2.32%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.22%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 01:05
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.76%EV -5.38%E -2.32%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.22%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 01:05
Bovada🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.49%EV -5.79%E -2.51%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 01:09
BetUS🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.49%EV -5.79%E -2.51%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 01:05
BetAnything🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.49%EV -5.79%E -2.51%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 01:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.75%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.01%EV -1.04%E -0.326%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.59%E -0.822%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:45
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 00:55
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 01:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-20 13:00
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 00:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 01:24
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 01:04
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-20 11:20
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 00:55
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 01:05
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 01:05
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-20 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.72%EV -6.61%E -2.89%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -5.99%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -7.76%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 01:25
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.85%EV -7.02%E -3.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -4.14%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 00:45
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-20 11:20
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 00:50
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -10.88%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 00:45
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-20 11:25
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-20 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-20 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-20 11:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -11.87%E -4.16%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 12:50
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-22 01:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.00%EV -9.05%E -4.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.02%EV -10.88%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 00:45
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-22 01:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 18:30
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 18:30
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -14.96%E -5.44%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-21 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 40.85%EV -13.13%E -6.17%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -12.29%E -3.96%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-22 01:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.76%EV -13.54%E -6.39%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.09%EV -14.03%E -5.05%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.15%EV -13.14%E -4.28%K -6.35%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-22 01:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.78%EV -14.36%E -6.84%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.14%EV -14.96%E -5.44%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.08%EV -13.71%E -4.49%K -6.69%G +0.000%16.8%2026-02-20 11:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.55%EV -16.40%E -8.00%K -15.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.79%EV -16.51%E -6.11%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.66%EV -17.95%E -6.19%K -9.45%G +0.000%20.3%2026-02-22 00:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-02-22 01:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-02-22 01:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-02-22 01:15
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-02-22 01:25
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.06%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.92%2.3%2026-02-22 01:20
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.1%2026-02-22 01:15