The School of Odds

Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls

2026-08-15 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atlanta United FC (Local)

Prediction 50.82%1.97fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.53%50.69%50.75%51.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.681.811.841.9159.52%55.16%54.35%52.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New York Red Bulls (Visit)

Prediction 26.14%3.83fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.817%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.57%26.18%26.14%27.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.483.503.7131.75%28.72%28.57%26.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.04%4.34fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.486%
Kelly -0.636%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.25%23.13%23.11%24.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.834.2527.78%25.56%26.14%23.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.83%EV -2.94%E -1.54%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.17%EV -3.03%E -0.817%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 23.00%EV -2.76%E -0.653%K -0.856%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 11:14
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -5.90%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%EV -2.07%E -0.486%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 11:14
Coolbet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.90%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 11:14
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.90%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:15
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.83%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 11:14
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.44%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:45
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.44%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:45
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.44%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:45
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.98%E -3.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.44%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:45
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 11:15
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.95%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -4.86%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -8.29%E -2.08%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 13:10
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 50.27%EV -8.53%E -4.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 11:50
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.53%E -4.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -13.75%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.44%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 11:15
ReBet1.79I 55.87%NM 50.78%EV -9.03%E -5.05%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 11:50
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 50.91%EV -12.08%E -6.98%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.18%EV -12.44%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 11:13
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.51%EV -12.59%E -7.32%K -17.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.33%EV -13.75%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -13.59%E -3.62%K -4.94%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-26 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 50.69%EV -13.61%E -8.00%K -19.44%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 25.57%EV -11.92%E -3.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.74%EV -16.35%E -4.50%K -6.22%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 11:48
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 50.00%EV -14.62%E -8.70%K -21.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.67%EV -17.67%E -5.61%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.33%EV -17.04%E -4.73%K -6.56%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-26 11:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.