Language:English
Wales v Norway
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Wales (Local)
Prediction 13.24%7.55fair odd
EV +9.89%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.134%
assuming max odds 8.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.69%13.20%13.31%15.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.057.008.3016.00%14.18%14.29%12.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Norway (Visit)
Prediction 67.48%1.48fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -6.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.21%67.39%67.54%69.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.4475.19%71.52%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.28%5.19fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.331%
Kelly -0.411%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.43%19.41%19.15%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.824.905.1022.73%20.75%20.41%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wales (Local): 13.24%; Norway (Visit): 67.48%; Draw: 19.28%. For Wales (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.55. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.69%EV +9.89%E +1.19%K +1.35%G +0.134% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.29%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%EV -1.69%E -0.331%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.15I 12.27%NM 11.85%EV +7.90%E +0.970%K +1.11%G +0.087% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.01%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -2.65%E -0.525%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV +2.61%E +0.336%K +0.386%G +0.010% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.53%EV -7.55%E -5.51%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.36%EV -6.51%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV +2.61%E +0.336%K +0.386%G +0.010% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -8.90%E -6.59%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.27%EV +1.94%E +0.253%K +0.290%G +0.006% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.45%EV -6.87%E -4.98%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -5.54%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 18:22 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -2.82%E -1.96%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -2.82%E -1.96%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.86%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.45%EV -3.50%E -2.45%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -5.54%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.87%E -4.98%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.22%E -6.05%K -22.84%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -8.43%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -10.25%E -7.70%K -31.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -0.703%E -0.094%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -10.25%E -7.70%K -31.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -8.43%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.27%EV -3.35%E -0.459%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.74%EV -3.50%E -2.45%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.99%EV -1.69%E -0.331%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.91%EV -3.35%E -0.459%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.37%EV -4.17%E -2.94%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -12.29%E -2.70%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.91%EV -3.35%E -0.459%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.37%EV -4.17%E -2.94%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -12.29%E -2.70%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.51%EV -6.00%E -0.845%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.56%EV -4.17%E -2.94%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.92%EV -2.26%E -0.447%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -4.85%E -3.44%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -4.85%E -3.44%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -4.85%E -3.44%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 18:23 |
| TAB🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -8.43%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -11.32%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -13.25%E -2.94%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -13.25%E -2.94%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -13.25%E -2.94%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -7.32%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -6.87%E -4.98%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.55%EV -6.87%E -4.98%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -11.32%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.45%EV -7.55%E -5.51%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -5.54%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.25%E -2.94%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.25%E -2.94%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.25%E -2.94%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -10.63%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.22%E -6.05%K -22.84%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -5.54%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -13.94%E -2.15%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -2.82%E -1.96%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -13.94%E -2.15%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -4.17%E -2.94%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.94%E -2.15%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.94%E -2.15%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.94%E -2.15%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -13.94%E -2.15%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -15.18%E -3.45%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.75%EV -16.59%E -2.63%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.90%EV -4.85%E -3.44%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 17:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.10%EV -17.25%E -2.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.02%EV -3.50%E -2.45%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -3.61%E -0.723%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV -17.25%E -2.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.24%EV -5.52%E -3.95%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -5.54%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.50% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.17% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.32% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |