The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Wales v Norway

2026-10-01 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wales (Local)

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.00%26.92%27.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.373.5032.26%29.78%29.72%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norway (Visit)

Prediction 47.63%2.10fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.55%47.63%47.69%48.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.931.922.0053.76%51.92%51.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.37%3.94fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.04%25.37%25.38%25.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.593.633.7529.41%27.83%27.59%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Wales (Local): 27.00%; Norway (Visit): 47.63%; Draw: 25.37%. For Norway (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.00, with an expected value of -4.73%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.73%E -2.37%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 13:30
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-25 13:30
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -7.59%E -3.91%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 13:29
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-25 13:34
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -8.21%E -2.41%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -5.69%E -2.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -7.40%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-25 13:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 26.82%EV -10.10%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.51%EV -10.45%E -5.56%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.67%EV -11.72%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-25 13:37
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.91%E -3.30%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.12%E -3.65%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-25 13:29
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.91%E -3.30%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -8.67%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-25 13:29
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.87%EV -14.96%E -4.75%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.69%EV -10.45%E -5.56%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -12.48%E -3.62%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-25 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.95%EV -16.31%E -5.26%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 46.58%EV -11.40%E -6.13%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -13.75%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-25 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.