The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ukraine v Northern Ireland

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:45 UTC

Final: Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ukraine (Local)

Prediction 41.77%2.39fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.93%41.87%41.74%43.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.252.3046.51%44.77%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northern Ireland (Visit)

Prediction 27.04%3.70fair odd
EV +0.055%
Edge +0.015%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.91%27.04%27.03%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.453.7030.77%28.90%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.18%3.21fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.563%
Kelly -0.824%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.45%31.09%31.22%31.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.003.003.1534.72%33.36%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ukraine (Local): 41.77%; Northern Ireland (Visit): 27.04%; Draw: 31.18%. For Northern Ireland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.698. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.700, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.055%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.18%EV -7.26%E -3.27%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.91%EV +0.055%E +0.015%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.92%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 18:39
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.32%EV -2.38%E -0.659%K -0.911%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -5.83%E -1.93%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 18:44
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -4.75%E -2.08%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -2.65%E -0.736%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -4.75%E -2.08%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -2.65%E -0.736%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -4.75%E -2.08%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -2.65%E -0.736%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-02 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -8.10%E -3.68%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.65%E -0.736%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-02 18:44
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.00%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.00%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 18:40
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:39
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:38
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:40
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 18:40
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.01%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 18:40
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.01%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 18:40
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.01%EV -6.84%E -3.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 18:40
Suprabets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.16%EV -3.92%E -1.70%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.28%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.56%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 18:41
Bovada🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98%EV -4.34%E -1.89%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -6.71%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.81%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 18:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -3.92%E -1.70%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 18:40
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 18:40
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:44
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.19%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -8.10%E -3.68%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 18:40
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -8.10%E -3.68%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 18:38
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.93%E -4.10%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 18:40
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.93%E -4.10%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.93%E -4.10%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -8.01%E -2.71%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 18:40
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -10.18%E -4.74%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-02 18:40
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.10%E -3.68%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.06%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-02 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -8.10%E -3.68%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.41%E -2.81%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -1.77%E -0.563%K -0.824%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-02 18:40
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -8.10%E -3.68%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.41%E -2.81%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.06%EV -8.93%E -4.10%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -9.41%E -2.81%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 18:38
MyBookie.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -6.01%E -2.67%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.86%EV -10.22%E -3.08%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.04%EV -7.07%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -10.18%E -4.74%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.11%E -3.73%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -3.33%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%0.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%0.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%1.0%2026-10-02 18:40