The School of Odds
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Turkey v Belgium

2026-11-12 17:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Turkey (Local)

Prediction 21.77%4.59fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.12%21.77%21.77%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.184.324.334.5023.92%23.13%23.09%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgium (Visit)

Prediction 56.45%1.77fair odd
EV -5.73%
Edge -3.43%
Kelly -8.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.45%56.45%56.45%57.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.631.621.6761.73%61.35%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.77%4.59fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -0.953%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.12%21.77%21.77%21.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.324.334.4023.81%23.12%23.09%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Turkey (Local): 21.77%; Belgium (Visit): 56.45%; Draw: 21.77%. For Turkey (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.50, with an expected value of -2.02%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -2.02%E -0.448%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -5.73%E -3.43%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -5.72%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 09:44
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.19%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.98%E -4.90%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -4.19%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-14 09:45
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.72%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -8.55%E -5.28%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.72%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-14 09:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.72%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -8.55%E -5.28%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.72%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-14 09:44
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.55%E -5.28%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.55%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-14 08:04
1xBet🎯4.18I 23.92%NM 22.03%EV -8.98%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.85%EV -8.55%E -5.28%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.12%EV -5.06%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-14 08:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.