The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Turkey v Belgium

2026-11-12 17:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Turkey (Local)

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +0.654%
Kelly +0.887%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%26.87%26.99%27.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.503.8030.77%28.55%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgium (Visit)

Prediction 48.56%2.06fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -5.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.76%48.68%48.55%50.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.901.911.9555.87%52.52%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.47%4.09fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -0.703%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.45%24.47%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.823.804.0027.78%26.21%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Turkey (Local): 26.97%; Belgium (Visit): 48.56%; Draw: 24.47%. For Turkey (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.80, producing a positive expected value of +2.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV +2.48%E +0.654%K +0.887%G +0.022%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.37%EV -6.77%E -3.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -2.11%E -0.527%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-03 10:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV +2.48%E +0.654%K +0.887%G +0.022%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.37%EV -6.77%E -3.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -2.11%E -0.527%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-03 10:19
1xBet🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.57%EV +2.21%E +0.584%K +0.794%G +0.018%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.21%EV -6.28%E -3.26%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -2.11%E -0.527%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 08:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.64%EV +1.14%E +0.303%K +0.413%G +0.005%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.33%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%EV -2.11%E -0.527%K -0.703%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-03 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.62%EV +0.866%E +0.232%K +0.316%G +0.003%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.18%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.20%EV -3.09%E -0.780%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-01 08:09
Bally Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -1.56%E -0.428%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.92%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 09:55
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -1.56%E -0.428%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.92%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 10:19
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -1.56%E -0.428%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.92%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 10:30
Pinnacle🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.86%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.30%EV -4.07%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 13:20
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 08:50
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.64%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 08:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -10.17%E -5.50%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-03 10:20
BetRivers🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -10.17%E -5.50%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-03 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -10.17%E -5.50%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-03 10:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -10.17%E -5.50%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-03 10:15
TABtouch🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -10.17%E -5.50%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-03 10:19
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-02 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-02 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-02 04:10
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-02 04:10
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -6.28%E -3.26%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-02 21:00
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.61%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-02 04:10
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.95%E -2.02%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -7.74%E -4.07%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 10:04
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.31%E -2.72%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.11%E -0.527%K -0.703%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 10:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-02 17:00
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -7.74%E -4.07%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 10:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.74%E -4.07%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-02 22:30
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.45%E -2.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 04:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.45%E -2.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 04:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.45%E -2.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 04:10
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.90%E -3.30%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-02 04:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -8.30%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.41%EV -13.08%E -7.31%K -16.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -11.90%E -3.30%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.1%2026-11-03 10:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -9.65%E -2.88%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -6.77%E -3.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-02 16:49
ReBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 27.25%EV -9.92%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.15%EV -8.23%E -4.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -9.45%E -2.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-02 17:05
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -11.00%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.76%EV -6.77%E -3.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.45%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-02 17:05
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -11.00%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.26%E -3.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 11:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.00%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.50%EV -10.65%E -5.79%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -10.67%E -2.92%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 08:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -12.35%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -8.71%E -4.63%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.00%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-02 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%3.6%2026-11-03 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%3.6%2026-11-03 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%3.6%2026-11-03 14:15