The School of Odds
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Sweden v Poland

Kickoff: 2026-09-28 18:45 UTC

Final: Sweden 3–1 Poland

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sweden (Local)

Prediction 45.32%2.21fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.82%45.42%45.16%48.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.062.052.1450.76%48.62%48.78%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Poland (Visit)

Prediction 28.66%3.49fair odd
EV +6.32%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.33%
Growth +0.147%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%28.55%28.97%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.253.7132.26%30.45%30.77%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.02%3.84fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.405%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.85%26.03%25.87%27.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.553.8029.41%28.09%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sweden (Local): 45.32%; Poland (Visit): 28.66%; Draw: 26.02%. For Poland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Suprabets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.12%EV -10.71%E -5.44%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.55%EV +6.32%E +1.70%K +2.33%G +0.147%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-28 18:11
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV +1.74%E +0.489%K +0.681%G +0.012%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -10.24%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-28 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.90%EV -3.91%E -1.85%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.80%EV +0.304%E +0.087%K +0.121%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV -3.74%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.90%EV -3.91%E -1.85%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.80%EV +0.304%E +0.087%K +0.121%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV -3.74%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.90%EV -3.91%E -1.85%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.80%EV +0.304%E +0.087%K +0.121%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV -3.74%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-28 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.56%E -0.754%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.94%E -2.55%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:34
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.54%E -3.70%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.12%EV -3.14%E -0.928%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.28%EV -2.17%E -0.578%K -0.788%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-28 18:43
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.91%E -1.85%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.00%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -10.24%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-28 18:40
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -4.00%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -7.64%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -4.00%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -7.64%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -4.00%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -7.64%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.94%E -2.55%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-28 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.51%EV -10.26%E -5.18%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-28 18:42
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -10.24%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-28 18:39
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -10.24%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-28 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -10.24%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.74%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 18:40
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -8.94%E -2.55%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.35%E -4.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-28 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.35%E -4.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-28 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.35%E -4.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-28 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.35%E -4.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-28 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20%EV -3.91%E -1.85%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.58%EV -7.15%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -1.13%E -0.298%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-28 18:44
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:40
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:35
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -2.43%E -0.649%K -0.885%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-28 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -9.35%E -4.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -3.74%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-28 18:40
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.82%EV -3.01%E -1.40%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -9.73%E -3.09%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -7.64%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:44
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -9.73%E -3.09%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.94%E -2.55%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-28 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -9.35%E -4.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -9.73%E -3.09%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -3.74%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-28 18:40
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -5.73%E -2.75%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.34%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 18:40
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -4.82%E -2.29%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.94%E -2.55%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-28 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.94%E -2.55%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-28 18:40
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -7.08%E -3.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.54%E -3.39%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-28 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-09-28 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-09-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-09-28 18:35