The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Spain v England

2026-11-15 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spain (Local)

Prediction 60.66%1.65fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.74%60.66%60.66%62.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.6269.93%66.59%66.67%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

England (Visit)

Prediction 18.07%5.53fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +0.527%
Kelly +0.639%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.48%18.07%18.07%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.145.075.7022.22%19.44%19.72%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.788%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.72%21.27%21.27%21.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.374.404.5724.39%22.88%22.73%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Spain (Local): 60.66%; England (Visit): 18.07%; Draw: 21.27%. For England (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.53. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.70, producing a positive expected value of +3.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -9.01%E -6.00%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.48%EV +3.01%E +0.527%K +0.639%G +0.019%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -4.30%E -0.956%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 15:01
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -7.19%E -4.70%K -13.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -0.609%E -0.111%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -4.30%E -0.956%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-07 15:00
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -9.01%E -6.00%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -0.609%E -0.111%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.30%E -0.956%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 15:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -9.01%E -6.00%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -0.609%E -0.111%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.30%E -0.956%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 15:20
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -9.01%E -6.00%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%EV -7.84%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-08 08:15
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.74%EV -1.73%E -1.07%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 19.09%EV -8.38%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.18%EV -2.81%E -0.615%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-07 15:05
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.19%E -4.70%K -13.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -9.64%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-08 13:25
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -9.01%E -6.00%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.64%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -6.43%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-08 08:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.45%EV -12.04%E -8.30%K -26.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.82%EV -9.64%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.72%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-08 08:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.30%EV -11.43%E -7.83%K -24.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -15.07%E -3.21%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-08 08:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.00%EV -13.25%E -9.27%K -30.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -18.68%E -4.15%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.93%EV -12.81%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%16.5%2026-11-08 08:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 51.36%3.00I 33.33%NM 26.19%3.50I 28.57%NM 22.45%27.3%2026-11-07 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 51.36%3.00I 33.33%NM 26.19%3.50I 28.57%NM 22.45%27.3%2026-11-07 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 51.69%3.00I 33.33%NM 26.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 22.30%28.1%2026-11-07 17:45

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.