Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Serbia v Germany

2026-11-13 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Serbia (Local)

Prediction 9.37%10.67fair odd
EV +7.76%
Edge +0.675%
Kelly +0.739%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.17%9.39%9.45%12.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.7810.0011.5014.29%10.22%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Germany (Visit)

Prediction 75.11%1.33fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -13.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.13%74.95%75.08%76.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.241.251.2884.03%80.90%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.52%6.44fair odd
EV +0.892%
Edge +0.137%
Kelly +0.162%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.60%15.66%15.47%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.896.006.5020.00%16.99%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Serbia (Local): 9.37%; Germany (Visit): 75.11%; Draw: 15.52%. For Serbia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.67. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.50, producing a positive expected value of +7.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.42%EV -7.62%E -6.19%K -33.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -5.32%E -0.872%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 13:45
NordicBet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.42%EV -7.62%E -6.19%K -33.12%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -5.32%E -0.872%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 13:44
1xBet🎯11.10I 9.01%NM 8.72%EV +4.02%E +0.362%K +0.398%G +0.016%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.58%EV -3.86%E -3.02%K -13.80%G +0.000%6.16I 16.23%NM 15.70%EV -4.39%E -0.712%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-30 04:55
Marathon Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.72%EV +3.08%E +0.280%K +0.308%G +0.009%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.55%EV -4.61%E -3.63%K -17.09%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.73%EV -5.32%E -0.872%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-30 04:55
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +3.08%E +0.280%K +0.308%G +0.009%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -2.99%E -0.478%K -0.569%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 05:09
Paddy Power🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +3.08%E +0.280%K +0.308%G +0.009%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.87%E -8.23%K -49.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 05:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +3.08%E +0.280%K +0.308%G +0.009%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.87%E -8.23%K -49.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 05:10
betfred_uk🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.29%E -0.629%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +0.892%E +0.137%K +0.162%G +0.001%5.4%2026-10-30 09:05
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -6.29%E -0.629%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:49
888sport🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -6.29%E -0.629%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -14.63%E -2.66%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-30 04:54
888sport (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -6.29%E -0.629%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -14.63%E -2.66%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-30 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -6.29%E -0.629%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -14.63%E -2.66%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-30 04:55
William Hill🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.29%E -0.629%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -22.39%E -4.48%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 04:55
BetMGM🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.77%EV -8.63%E -0.886%K -0.987%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.99%EV -4.61%E -3.63%K -17.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -2.99%E -0.478%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-30 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.59%EV -8.63%E -0.886%K -0.987%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.82%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-30 19:50
Neds🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.59%EV -8.63%E -0.886%K -0.987%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.82%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-30 19:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.12%E -4.89%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-30 19:50
BoyleSports🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.37%E -6.86%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 05:00
LeoVegas🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.35%E -2.39%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -6.87%E -5.54%K -28.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -6.87%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 03:50
Betclic (FR)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 10.81%EV -22.69%E -2.75%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.69%EV -9.12%E -7.54%K -43.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -10.75%E -1.87%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-30 03:48
ReBet🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 11.38%EV -27.84%E -3.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 72.40%EV -9.12%E -7.54%K -43.43%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.22%EV -16.18%E -3.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-30 03:50
Winamax (DE)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.13%EV -32.06%E -4.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 72.70%EV -9.12%E -7.54%K -43.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.17%EV -9.97%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-30 03:49
Winamax (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -34.40%E -4.91%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 72.13%EV -10.62%E -8.93%K -55.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.61%EV -14.63%E -2.66%K -3.25%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-30 03:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 17.90%1.22I 81.97%NM 68.96%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.14%18.9%2026-10-30 20:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 17.90%1.22I 81.97%NM 68.96%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.14%18.9%2026-10-30 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 17.90%1.22I 81.97%NM 68.96%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.14%18.9%2026-10-30 20:55