The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Romania v Bosnia & Herzegovina

Kickoff: 2026-09-28 18:45 UTC

Final: Romania 2–4 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Romania (Local)

Prediction 37.15%2.69fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%37.19%37.09%38.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.502.6042.02%40.10%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit)

Prediction 33.91%2.95fair odd
EV +0.035%
Edge +0.012%
Kelly +0.018%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.32%33.80%34.08%34.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.782.802.9538.17%35.91%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.94%3.46fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.476%
Kelly -0.674%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%29.01%28.83%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.37%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Romania (Local): 37.15%; Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit): 33.91%; Draw: 28.94%. For Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.949. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.950, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.035%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.92%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV +0.035%E +0.012%K +0.018%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-28 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.92%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV +0.035%E +0.012%K +0.018%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-28 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.92%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV +0.035%E +0.012%K +0.018%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-28 18:35
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -6.37%E -2.53%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.66%E -0.573%K -0.874%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 18:19
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -8.97%E -3.66%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -2.34%E -0.812%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:35
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -8.97%E -3.66%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -2.34%E -0.812%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:30
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -8.97%E -3.66%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -2.34%E -0.812%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-28 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.11%EV -9.72%E -4.00%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -3.36%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-28 18:35
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.57%E -4.86%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -3.36%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-28 18:29
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -9.72%E -4.00%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -3.36%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-28 18:35
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.99%EV -4.52%E -1.76%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.59%EV -4.03%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.43%EV -6.54%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-28 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -4.37%E -1.55%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 18:40
Suprabets🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.14%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.87%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.36%EV -6.54%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 18:06
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 18:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 18:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-28 18:10
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.83%E -4.51%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-28 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -11.57%E -4.86%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -11.74%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-28 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -11.57%E -4.86%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -11.74%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-28 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.31%EV -4.52%E -1.76%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.49%EV -5.73%E -2.06%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.20%EV -1.62%E -0.476%K -0.674%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-28 18:40
Bovada🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.78%EV -4.89%E -1.91%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -6.75%E -2.45%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-28 18:39
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.75%E -2.45%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-28 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -3.40%E -1.31%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.75%E -2.45%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-28 18:35
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.83%E -4.51%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.75%E -2.45%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-28 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.60%EV -10.83%E -4.51%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -6.75%E -2.45%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -11.74%E -3.85%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-28 18:35
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -3.40%E -1.31%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-28 18:40
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-28 18:40
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-28 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -5.26%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-28 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -8.97%E -3.66%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-28 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -10.14%E -3.83%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-28 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.95%EV -7.86%E -3.17%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.82%E -4.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-28 18:40
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -11.16%E -4.26%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -7.12%E -2.85%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -11.16%E -4.26%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.61%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29%0.4%2026-09-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.27%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%0.6%2026-09-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.95%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.98%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.07%0.8%2026-09-28 18:40