The School of Odds
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Republic of Ireland v Israel

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 18:46 UTC

Final: Republic of Ireland 1–1 Israel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Republic of Ireland (Local)

Prediction 47.78%2.09fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.96%47.75%47.76%49.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.941.952.0552.63%51.49%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Israel (Visit)

Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV -0.090%
Edge -0.022%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%24.99%25.02%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.783.804.0029.41%26.42%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.24%3.67fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%27.26%27.22%28.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.503.5531.25%29.06%28.57%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Republic of Ireland (Local): 47.78%; Israel (Visit): 24.98%; Draw: 27.24%. For Israel (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.004. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.000, with an expected value of -0.090%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -2.05%E -1.00%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -15.08%E -4.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.10%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 18:44
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.44%E -2.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 18:30
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -4.44%E -2.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.10%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 18:40
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -4.44%E -2.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -15.08%E -4.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.46%E -3.53%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 18:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.43%EV -5.40%E -2.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.34%EV -1.59%E -0.403%K -0.540%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 18:30
Suprabets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.88%EV -5.40%E -2.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.59%E -0.663%K -0.892%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.80%EV -7.10%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 18:42
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -5.40%E -2.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -3.28%E -0.925%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 18:30
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.54%EV -6.35%E -3.24%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.58%EV -3.34%E -0.862%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.88%EV -3.56%E -1.00%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 18:40
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 18:30
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -10.10%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 18:45
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.46%E -3.53%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.46%E -3.53%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.25%EV -7.31%E -3.77%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 18:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -0.090%E -0.022%K -0.030%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 18:29
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.34%E -0.339%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 18:44
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-04 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.80%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-04 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%0.3%2026-10-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.40%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-10-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%1.6%2026-10-04 18:45