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Republic of Ireland v Austria

2026-10-01 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Republic of Ireland (Local)

Prediction 27.29%3.66fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.779%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%27.30%27.30%28.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.363.303.5931.75%29.78%30.30%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria (Visit)

Prediction 44.55%2.24fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.900%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.99%44.51%44.56%46.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.092.132.2050.51%47.76%47.06%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.15%3.55fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.79%28.19%28.14%29.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.303.4032.26%30.53%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Republic of Ireland (Local): 27.29%; Austria (Visit): 44.55%; Draw: 28.15%. For Austria (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -1.98%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.59I 27.86%NM 27.03%EV -2.02%E -0.562%K -0.779%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.10%EV -1.98%E -0.900%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.87%EV -5.41%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-27 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.99%EV -3.11%E -0.876%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.15%EV -3.32%E -1.53%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.86%EV -6.53%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-27 19:55
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.89%E -5.45%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-27 19:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -5.84%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.00%EV -11.78%E -5.95%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-27 19:01
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.21%E -1.96%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-27 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.89%E -5.45%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 19:00
Suprabets🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -6.44%E -3.06%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.94%EV -10.76%E -3.39%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-27 19:46
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.01%EV -11.78%E -5.95%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-27 19:00
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -3.76%E -1.74%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -3.76%E -1.74%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:15
BetRivers🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -3.76%E -1.74%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -3.76%E -1.74%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -3.76%E -1.74%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -3.76%E -1.74%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:20
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.66%E -4.23%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-27 20:00
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.66%E -4.23%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-27 20:00
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -10.89%E -5.45%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-27 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -14.03%E -4.45%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -8.66%E -4.23%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-27 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 26.60%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.93%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-27 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.36%4.6%2026-09-27 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.87%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%5.1%2026-09-27 19:55