The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Portugal v Denmark

2026-11-14 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portugal (Local)

Prediction 66.82%1.50fair odd
EV -9.12%
Edge -6.71%
Kelly -25.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.82%66.82%66.82%70.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.341.331.3675.19%74.53%74.91%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denmark (Visit)

Prediction 12.98%7.70fair odd
EV +3.86%
Edge +0.483%
Kelly +0.552%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.61%12.98%12.98%12.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.688.008.0014.29%13.01%12.50%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.20%4.95fair odd
EV +6.02%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.85%20.20%20.20%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.965.005.2522.22%20.14%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Portugal (Local): 66.82%; Denmark (Visit): 12.98%; Draw: 20.20%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +6.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -11.13%E -8.37%K -33.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +3.86%E +0.483%K +0.552%G +0.021%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV +6.02%E +1.15%K +1.42%G +0.085%6.7%2026-10-14 14:29
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -10.46%E -7.80%K -30.76%G +0.000%7.11I 14.06%NM 12.96%EV -7.69%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.28%EV +1.78%E +0.354%K +0.441%G +0.008%8.5%2026-10-14 13:44
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -9.12%E -6.71%K -25.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +3.86%E +0.483%K +0.552%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV +0.976%E +0.195%K +0.244%G +0.002%6.0%2026-10-14 14:30
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -11.13%E -8.37%K -33.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +3.86%E +0.483%K +0.552%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.976%E +0.195%K +0.244%G +0.002%7.7%2026-10-14 14:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -11.13%E -8.37%K -33.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +3.86%E +0.483%K +0.552%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +0.976%E +0.195%K +0.244%G +0.002%7.7%2026-10-14 14:29
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -9.12%E -6.71%K -25.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.12%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-14 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.