The School of Odds
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Portugal v Denmark

2026-11-14 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portugal (Local)

Prediction 63.58%1.57fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -7.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.11%63.61%63.46%65.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.461.471.5170.92%68.32%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denmark (Visit)

Prediction 15.79%6.33fair odd
EV +2.62%
Edge +0.404%
Kelly +0.477%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.44%15.80%15.87%17.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.976.006.5018.87%16.76%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.63%4.85fair odd
EV -0.983%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.259%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%20.59%20.67%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.464.504.8024.39%22.40%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Portugal (Local): 63.58%; Denmark (Visit): 15.79%; Draw: 20.63%. For Denmark (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.33. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.50, producing a positive expected value of +2.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.08%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +2.62%E +0.404%K +0.477%G +0.013%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-03 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.08%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +2.62%E +0.404%K +0.477%G +0.013%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-03 11:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.78%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.82%EV +2.62%E +0.404%K +0.477%G +0.013%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.40%EV -7.17%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-03 11:35
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +2.62%E +0.404%K +0.477%G +0.013%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 08:24
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.28%EV -3.99%E -2.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.42I 15.58%NM 15.12%EV +1.36%E +0.212%K +0.251%G +0.003%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.61%EV -2.84%E -0.603%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-01 08:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.31%EV -5.26%E -3.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.09%EV +0.256%E +0.040%K +0.048%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.61%EV -4.08%E -0.877%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-01 08:09
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.58%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.11%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.89%EV -0.534%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -0.983%E -0.205%K -0.259%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 04:10
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.58%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.11%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.89%EV -0.534%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -0.983%E -0.205%K -0.259%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 04:10
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -1.32%E -0.212%K -0.252%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 09:59
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.80%E -5.38%K -17.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -1.32%E -0.212%K -0.252%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 08:50
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.02%EV -5.26%E -3.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -3.69%E -0.605%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -10.27%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-03 11:35
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.02%EV -5.26%E -3.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -3.69%E -0.605%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -10.27%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-03 11:35
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.02%EV -5.26%E -3.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -3.69%E -0.605%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -10.27%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-03 11:33
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 09:59
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -12.33%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-03 11:35
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.70%EV -5.90%E -3.98%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -12.33%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-03 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.17%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 08:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.27%E -0.878%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.17%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 08:50
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.63%EV -5.26%E -3.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -6.85%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.30%EV -3.67%E -0.785%K -0.999%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.53%EV -6.53%E -4.44%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -8.43%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -12.33%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.53%EV -6.53%E -4.44%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -8.43%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -12.33%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 11:35
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.53%EV -6.53%E -4.44%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -8.43%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -12.33%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 11:35
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.85%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.60%EV -8.43%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -13.36%E -3.18%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-01 08:55
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.17%EV -5.26%E -3.53%K -10.74%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -9.22%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-02 21:00
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.22%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.17%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 10:00
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -9.22%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -10.68%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-01 08:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -9.22%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -10.68%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-01 08:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -9.22%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -10.68%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-01 08:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.64%EV -7.17%E -4.91%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -11.59%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.77%EV -3.05%E -0.648%K -0.823%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-02 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.34%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -11.59%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -15.42%E -3.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-03 11:35
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -8.44%E -5.86%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -13.16%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -10.68%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 11:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.27%EV -10.35%E -7.34%K -25.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -13.16%E -2.39%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.51%EV -10.27%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-02 04:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.99%EV -9.08%E -6.35%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.00%EV -16.32%E -3.08%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -7.17%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-02 17:01
ReBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.11%EV -10.35%E -7.34%K -25.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.52%EV -16.32%E -3.08%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.36%EV -15.42%E -3.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-02 04:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 43.97%1.24I 80.65%NM 44.33%4.70I 21.28%NM 11.70%81.9%2026-11-03 20:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 43.97%1.24I 80.65%NM 44.33%4.70I 21.28%NM 11.70%81.9%2026-11-03 20:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 43.97%1.24I 80.65%NM 44.33%4.70I 21.28%NM 11.70%81.9%2026-11-03 20:15