The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norway v Wales

2026-11-14 17:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norway (Local)

Prediction 75.23%1.33fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -13.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.68%75.12%75.37%76.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2883.33%80.66%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wales (Visit)

Prediction 9.38%10.66fair odd
EV +12.57%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.144%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.94%9.41%9.30%11.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.2510.0012.0012.50%9.76%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.39%6.50fair odd
EV +0.051%
Edge +0.008%
Kelly +0.009%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.27%15.47%15.33%16.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.986.006.5018.87%16.72%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Norway (Local): 75.23%; Wales (Visit): 9.38%; Draw: 15.39%. For Wales (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.66. 11 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.00, producing a positive expected value of +12.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +12.57%E +1.05%K +1.14%G +0.144%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 08:24
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.72%EV -5.21%E -4.14%K -20.06%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.33%EV +8.82%E +0.760%K +0.832%G +0.073%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.94%EV -0.411%E -0.063%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-01 08:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.69%EV -3.71%E -2.90%K -13.25%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.88%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-03 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.69%EV -3.71%E -2.90%K -13.25%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.88%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-03 11:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.84%EV -4.46%E -3.51%K -16.53%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.37%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.79%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-03 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.69%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.34%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.98%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-01 08:15
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.42%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 08:51
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.42%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 08:50
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.99%EV -8.98%E -7.42%K -42.74%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +7.88%E +0.685%K +0.751%G +0.059%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.723%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 08:25
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.73%E -8.11%K -48.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +3.19%E +0.290%K +0.319%G +0.010%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 08:23
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.73%E -8.11%K -48.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +3.19%E +0.290%K +0.319%G +0.010%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 08:25
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -5.21%E -4.14%K -20.06%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.50%E -0.143%K -0.158%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -10.72%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-03 11:20
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -5.21%E -4.14%K -20.06%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.50%E -0.143%K -0.158%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -10.72%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-03 11:19
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -5.21%E -4.14%K -20.06%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.50%E -0.143%K -0.158%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -10.72%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-03 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +0.051%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 08:15
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +0.051%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 08:15
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.47%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.723%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-02 04:10
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.49%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 08:51
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.49%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 08:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.49%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -13.80%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-03 11:20
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.17%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.56%EV -13.80%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-03 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.33%EV -6.72%E -5.42%K -28.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -13.80%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-03 11:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.33%EV -6.72%E -5.42%K -28.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -13.80%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-03 11:19
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.33%EV -6.72%E -5.42%K -28.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -13.80%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-03 11:20
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.22%E -6.74%K -37.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 11:30
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -8.22%E -6.74%K -37.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -6.19%E -0.619%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 08:51
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.97%E -4.77%K -23.87%G +0.000%9.88I 10.12%NM 9.57%EV -7.32%E -0.740%K -0.824%G +0.000%6.39I 15.65%NM 14.80%EV -1.64%E -0.257%K -0.305%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-02 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.70%EV -6.72%E -5.42%K -28.00%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.63%EV -8.54%E -0.875%K -0.976%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 08:15
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.70%EV -6.72%E -5.42%K -28.00%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.63%EV -8.54%E -0.875%K -0.976%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 08:15
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.44%EV -6.72%E -5.42%K -28.00%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.59%EV -8.54%E -0.875%K -0.976%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.723%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-02 21:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.00%EV -8.98%E -7.42%K -42.74%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -10.88%E -1.15%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -16.88%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-03 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.42%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -15.57%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV +0.051%E +0.008%K +0.009%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-02 16:54
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.47%E -6.07%K -32.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -15.57%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 08:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.84%EV -8.98%E -7.42%K -42.74%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.21%EV -17.92%E -2.05%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.95%EV -13.80%E -2.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 08:50
ReBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.68%EV -8.98%E -7.42%K -42.74%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 10.72%EV -23.08%E -2.81%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.59%EV -18.42%E -3.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-01 08:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.91%EV -8.98%E -7.42%K -42.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -24.95%E -3.12%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-02 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 45.66%1.14I 87.72%NM 45.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 8.68%92.1%2026-11-03 13:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 45.66%1.14I 87.72%NM 45.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 8.68%92.1%2026-11-03 13:16
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 45.66%1.14I 87.72%NM 45.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 8.68%92.1%2026-11-03 13:16