The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Norway v Wales

2026-11-14 17:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norway (Local)

Prediction 73.95%1.35fair odd
EV -7.56%
Edge -6.05%
Kelly -30.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.95%73.95%73.95%75.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.231.231.2582.64%81.30%81.63%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wales (Visit)

Prediction 9.24%10.82fair odd
EV +1.68%
Edge +0.153%
Kelly +0.168%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.60%9.24%9.24%9.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0010.1810.0011.0010.00%9.82%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.81%5.95fair odd
EV +5.04%
Edge +0.807%
Kelly +0.960%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.91%16.81%16.81%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.986.006.2518.18%16.72%16.67%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Norway (Local): 73.95%; Wales (Visit): 9.24%; Draw: 16.81%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.95. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.25, producing a positive expected value of +5.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -9.04%E -7.35%K -39.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.56%E -0.756%K -0.840%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV +5.04%E +0.807%K +0.960%G +0.048%7.3%2026-10-14 18:00
1xBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -10.52%E -8.70%K -50.10%G +0.000%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.10%EV -6.64%E -0.657%K -0.730%G +0.000%6.14I 16.29%NM 14.96%EV +3.19%E +0.520%K +0.621%G +0.020%8.8%2026-10-14 13:40
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -7.56%E -6.05%K -30.25%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +1.68%E +0.153%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV +0.840%E +0.140%K +0.168%G +0.001%5.8%2026-10-14 17:59
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.78%E -8.02%K -44.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.56%E -0.756%K -0.840%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV +0.840%E +0.140%K +0.168%G +0.001%8.6%2026-10-14 17:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.78%E -8.02%K -44.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.56%E -0.756%K -0.840%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV +0.840%E +0.140%K +0.168%G +0.001%8.6%2026-10-14 18:00
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -7.56%E -6.05%K -30.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -7.56%E -0.756%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -7.56%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-14 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.