The School of Odds
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North Macedonia v Switzerland

2026-09-26 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Macedonia (Local)

Prediction 15.15%6.60fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -0.599%
Kelly -0.711%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.91%15.15%15.23%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.156.256.3517.24%16.25%16.00%15.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Switzerland (Visit)

Prediction 63.18%1.58fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.72%63.18%63.02%63.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.471.5669.44%67.43%68.03%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.67%4.61fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -0.798%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.48%21.67%21.76%22.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.314.324.4524.39%23.23%23.12%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: North Macedonia (Local): 15.15%; Switzerland (Visit): 63.18%; Draw: 21.67%. For Switzerland (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.56, with an expected value of -1.44%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯6.35I 15.75%NM 15.27%EV -3.81%E -0.599%K -0.711%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.71%E -1.76%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.78%EV -3.55%E -0.798%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-20 22:55
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -5.32%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -5.72%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 20:39
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -5.32%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -5.72%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -5.32%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -5.72%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -5.32%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.41%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -6.80%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -5.32%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.41%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -6.80%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:40
1xBet🎯6.15I 16.26%NM 15.81%EV -6.84%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.34%EV -1.44%E -0.925%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.85%EV -3.55%E -0.798%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-20 23:00
FanDuel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -9.11%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-20 20:39
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -9.11%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 20:39
Suprabets🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -12.14%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -5.87%E -3.94%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -11.14%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.96%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%177.8%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.96%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%177.8%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-20 20:39

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