Language:English
Netherlands v Serbia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Netherlands (Local)
Prediction 80.44%1.24fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -17.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.14%80.41%80.38%82.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.2088.50%85.22%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Serbia (Visit)
Prediction 7.08%14.13fair odd
EV +14.99%
Edge +0.922%
Kelly +0.983%
Growth +0.147%
assuming max odds 16.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.91%7.05%7.17%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5013.4213.0016.259.52%7.45%7.69%6.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.48%8.01fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.138%
Kelly +0.157%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 8.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.69%12.54%12.46%13.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.907.437.508.1014.49%13.45%13.33%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Netherlands (Local): 80.44%; Serbia (Visit): 7.08%; Draw: 12.48%. For Serbia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.13. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.08%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 16.25I 6.15%NM 5.96%EV +14.99%E +0.922%K +0.983%G +0.147% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.96%EV +1.12%E +0.138%K +0.157%G +0.002% | 3.2% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.76%EV -4.28%E -3.59%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.08%EV +13.22%E +0.826%K +0.881%G +0.117% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.76%EV -4.28%E -3.59%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.08%EV +13.22%E +0.826%K +0.881%G +0.117% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.76%EV -4.28%E -3.59%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.08%EV +13.22%E +0.826%K +0.881%G +0.117% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.78%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +13.22%E +0.826%K +0.881%G +0.117% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.31%EV -11.37%E -1.60%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.78%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +13.22%E +0.826%K +0.881%G +0.117% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.31%EV -11.37%E -1.60%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.12%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 15.20I 6.58%NM 6.32%EV +7.56%E +0.497%K +0.532%G +0.040% | 7.09I 14.10%NM 13.56%EV -11.49%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.55%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.42%EV +6.15%E +0.410%K +0.439%G +0.027% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.03%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-04 17:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +6.15%E +0.410%K +0.439%G +0.027% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 18:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +6.15%E +0.410%K +0.439%G +0.027% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.18%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +6.15%E +0.410%K +0.439%G +0.027% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 15:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -8.30%E -7.28%K -59.27%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +6.15%E +0.410%K +0.439%G +0.027% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -8.30%E -7.28%K -59.27%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +6.15%E +0.410%K +0.439%G +0.027% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.92%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.94%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.14%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -7.49%E -6.52%K -49.96%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.30%E -7.28%K -59.27%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV -0.931%E -0.067%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:26 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.28%E -3.59%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 14:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -4.28%E -3.59%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.08%E -4.31%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.49%E -6.52%K -49.96%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-04 18:38 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -9.10%E -8.06%K -70.02%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -8.01%E -0.616%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.44%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.57%EV -9.78%E -0.767%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 8.05I 12.42%NM 11.99%EV +0.493%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.44%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.57%EV -9.78%E -0.767%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 8.05I 12.42%NM 11.99%EV +0.493%E +0.061%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.47%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -11.55%E -0.924%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.10%EV -11.37%E -1.60%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 17:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.05%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.55%EV -13.31%E -1.09%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.40%EV -13.86%E -2.01%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 17:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.10%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -15.08%E -1.26%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.09%EV -3.25%E -0.420%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 17:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.08%E -1.26%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -5.89%E -5.03%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -15.08%E -1.26%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -12.61%E -1.80%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.05%EV -7.49%E -6.52%K -49.96%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -15.08%E -1.26%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 18:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.31%EV -6.69%E -5.77%K -41.81%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -18.62%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.69%EV -9.49%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -22.16%E -2.01%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -0.131%E -0.016%K -0.019%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 18:06 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.12%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -22.16%E -2.01%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -3.25%E -0.420%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -22.16%E -2.01%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.37%E -0.850%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 18:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -25.70%E -2.45%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -9.49%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:06 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.47%E -2.89%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -25.70%E -2.45%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -9.49%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.48% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.23% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 0.7% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.36% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 0.8% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.36% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 0.8% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.36% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 0.8% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |