The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Moldova v Faroe Islands

2026-09-29 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moldova (Local)

Prediction 33.11%3.02fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.87%33.11%33.12%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.802.8938.17%35.82%35.71%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Faroe Islands (Visit)

Prediction 34.71%2.88fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.28%34.74%34.74%35.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.692.702.7538.17%37.16%37.04%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.18%3.11fair odd
EV +0.735%
Edge +0.235%
Kelly +0.345%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.90%32.16%32.14%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.883.1337.04%34.62%34.72%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Moldova (Local): 33.11%; Faroe Islands (Visit): 34.71%; Draw: 32.18%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.13, producing a positive expected value of +0.735%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.54%EV -4.33%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.50%EV -5.24%E -1.92%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.96%EV +0.735%E +0.235%K +0.345%G +0.003%3.2%2026-09-27 09:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.61%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.48%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.90%EV -0.230%E -0.074%K -0.110%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-27 09:10
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.45%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 09:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.45%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 10:00
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.45%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.45%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 10:00
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -4.55%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -5.06%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -4.55%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -5.06%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 08:40
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -6.67%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 10:00
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -9.06%E -3.46%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -6.67%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 09:10
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -13.26%E -5.06%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -4.55%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.31%E -2.54%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-27 12:00
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.06%E -3.46%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.31%E -2.54%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-27 09:10
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -9.89%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-27 09:09
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -8.02%E -3.03%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -9.89%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-27 10:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -12.27%E -4.63%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -8.02%E -3.03%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -9.89%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-27 08:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -12.27%E -4.63%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -8.02%E -3.03%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -9.89%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-27 08:40
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.10%EV -5.59%E -2.05%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -10.53%E -3.79%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-27 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.10%EV -5.59%E -2.05%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -10.53%E -3.79%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-27 12:15
Bovada🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -4.66%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.38%EV -6.63%E -2.46%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.51%EV -11.17%E -4.05%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:18
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -7.30%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -9.06%E -3.46%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -11.49%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-27 09:09
Suprabets🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.87%EV -4.66%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.13%EV -6.63%E -2.46%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-27 09:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.03%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.03%0.9%2026-09-27 11:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.03%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.03%0.9%2026-09-27 11:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.03%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.03%0.9%2026-09-27 11:05