The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Malta v Andorra

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00 UTC

Final: Malta 1–0 Andorra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta (Local)

Prediction 56.24%1.78fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -6.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.28%56.21%56.15%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.7062.50%60.60%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andorra (Visit)

Prediction 15.23%6.57fair odd
EV +0.963%
Edge +0.145%
Kelly +0.171%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 6.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.32%15.28%15.35%16.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.176.106.6318.18%16.20%16.39%15.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.53%3.51fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.50%28.49%29.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.303.4232.26%30.65%30.30%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malta (Local): 56.24%; Andorra (Visit): 15.23%; Draw: 28.53%. For Andorra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.963%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.03%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.63I 15.08%NM 14.62%EV +0.963%E +0.145%K +0.171%G +0.002%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.35%EV -2.43%E -0.711%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-04 15:26
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.63%EV -0.255%E -0.039%K -0.046%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.35%EV -3.57%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 15:25
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.02%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 15:24
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.02%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 15:24
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:05
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:10
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:10
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:11
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:15
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.32%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.47%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -1.02%E -0.156%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 15:15
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.67%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.90%EV -3.30%E -0.520%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.42%EV -5.00%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.59%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -4.82%E -0.772%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.64%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.68%EV -4.82%E -0.772%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 15:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.39%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV -4.82%E -0.772%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -10.13%E -3.22%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-04 15:05
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.04%EV -5.59%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.87%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.59%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.17%EV -9.28%E -2.92%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 15:09
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -7.11%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 15:35
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.89%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -3.00%E -0.883%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 15:50
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.04%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.04%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 15:25
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.04%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.04%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 15:30
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.80%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.55%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 15:05
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.85%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 15:05
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.03%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 15:30
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.03%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 15:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.03%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.03%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 15:20
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.30%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 15:05
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.85%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -8.63%E -1.44%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 15:39
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.83%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.09%EV -10.15%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.08%EV -3.57%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 15:43
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.42%EV -10.15%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 15:55
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.42%EV -10.15%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 15:55
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.96%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -12.44%E -2.16%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-04 15:54
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.96%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -12.44%E -2.16%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-04 15:55
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.72%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -12.44%E -2.16%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 15:49
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.01%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -16.24%E -2.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.00%E -0.883%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 15:45
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.28%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -16.24%E -2.95%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-04 15:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.53%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-10-04 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.53%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-10-04 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.67%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.17%0.9%2026-10-04 15:55