The School of Odds
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Lithuania v Azerbaijan

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:01 UTC

Final: Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lithuania (Local)

Prediction 42.73%2.34fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.97%42.76%42.76%43.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.2548.78%45.60%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Azerbaijan (Visit)

Prediction 25.38%3.94fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.931%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.23%25.37%25.35%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.613.603.8030.77%27.73%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.30%31.86%31.89%32.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.0236.36%34.50%34.48%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lithuania (Local): 42.73%; Azerbaijan (Visit): 25.38%; Draw: 31.88%. For Azerbaijan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -3.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 13:00
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 12:35
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 12:40
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 12:40
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-27 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-27 12:10
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-27 12:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.01%EV -4.71%E -2.11%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.24%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.76%EV -3.71%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-27 12:59
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -4.71%E -2.11%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.22%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.25%EV -6.27%E -2.13%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 13:00
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.95%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 13:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -12.32%E -4.48%K -7.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-27 12:19
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -17.50%E -5.38%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-27 12:25
Suprabets🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.24%EV -6.41%E -2.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.98%EV -3.79%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.78%EV -4.99%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-27 12:31
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.38%EV -7.27%E -3.35%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.69%EV -9.12%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -8.18%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 12:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.95%EV -7.70%E -3.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -12.42%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.13%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-27 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.95%EV -7.70%E -3.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -12.42%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.13%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-27 12:40
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-27 12:50
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 12:59
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 13:00
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 12:49
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.37%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.97%EV -9.13%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-27 12:40
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.37%EV -8.12%E -3.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.97%EV -9.13%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-27 12:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.60%EV -9.41%E -4.44%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -14.96%E -4.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -12.32%E -4.48%K -7.04%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-27 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.49%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.49%EV -7.54%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-27 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -12.40%E -6.05%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-27 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.11%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.73%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.16%0.3%2026-09-27 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.62%0.4%2026-09-27 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%0.5%2026-09-27 12:50