The School of Odds
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Latvia v Cyprus

Kickoff: 2026-09-28 16:00 UTC

Final: Latvia 0–0 Cyprus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Latvia (Local)

Prediction 30.07%3.33fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%30.08%30.06%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.053.2535.09%32.69%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cyprus (Visit)

Prediction 38.94%2.57fair odd
EV -0.706%
Edge -0.277%
Kelly -0.456%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.83%38.78%39.11%39.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.402.5544.44%41.46%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.99%3.23fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.355%
Kelly -0.517%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.17%31.14%30.84%32.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.973.1935.71%33.53%33.67%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Latvia (Local): 30.07%; Cyprus (Visit): 38.94%; Draw: 30.99%. For Cyprus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.706%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -2.28%E -0.701%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -9.66%E -4.16%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -9.50%E -3.25%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 15:55
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -2.28%E -0.701%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.87%EV -9.66%E -4.16%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.67%EV -9.50%E -3.25%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 15:54
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -3.78%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-28 15:55
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.56%EV -4.68%E -1.48%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%EV -3.43%E -1.38%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.37%EV -1.13%E -0.355%K -0.517%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-28 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.36%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.48%EV -5.38%E -2.21%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.17%EV -1.44%E -0.453%K -0.661%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-28 15:55
Suprabets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.00%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.02%EV -5.38%E -2.21%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.98%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-28 15:48
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -3.92%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-28 15:50
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -3.92%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-28 15:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -3.92%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-28 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -3.92%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-28 15:50
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.49%E -3.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 15:50
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.49%E -3.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 15:55
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-28 15:50
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -0.706%E -0.277%K -0.456%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -8.57%E -2.91%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 15:55
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -0.706%E -0.277%K -0.456%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -8.57%E -2.91%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -0.706%E -0.277%K -0.456%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -8.57%E -2.91%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -0.706%E -0.277%K -0.456%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -8.57%E -2.91%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 15:55
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -0.706%E -0.277%K -0.456%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 15:30
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-28 15:55
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -8.29%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.16%EV -8.49%E -3.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-28 15:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-28 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.49%E -3.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-28 15:50
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.44%E -4.54%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-28 15:55
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.39%E -5.51%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-28 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -11.30%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.95%EV -5.77%E -2.38%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.92%EV -7.95%E -2.68%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-28 15:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.80%E -4.41%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.67%E -4.09%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.80%E -4.41%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -4.60%E -1.88%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.67%E -4.09%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 15:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -13.40%E -4.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-28 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.20%EV -14.31%E -5.02%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.05%EV -6.55%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.75%EV -13.22%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-28 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.21%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.64%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%0.3%2026-09-28 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01%0.8%2026-09-28 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01%0.8%2026-09-28 15:55