Language:English
Kazakhstan v Moldova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kazakhstan (Local)
Prediction 50.28%1.99fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.81%50.30%50.21%51.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.871.861.9454.95%53.60%53.76%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Moldova (Visit)
Prediction 20.22%4.94fair odd
EV -0.908%
Edge -0.185%
Kelly -0.233%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.52%20.23%20.33%21.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.564.504.9023.09%21.95%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.50%3.39fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.804%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.82%29.46%29.46%30.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.203.3033.33%31.64%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kazakhstan (Local): 50.28%; Moldova (Visit): 20.22%; Draw: 29.50%. For Moldova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.90, with an expected value of -0.908%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -2.46%E -1.27%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.15%EV -7.37%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 12:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.70%EV -3.97%E -2.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -4.13%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -3.97%E -2.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 13:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.36%EV -3.97%E -2.08%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.72%EV -7.99%E -1.76%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -4.47%E -2.35%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 13:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -4.47%E -2.35%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 13:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.87%EV -4.97%E -2.63%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.99%EV -2.73%E -0.567%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.14%EV -2.65%E -0.804%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 13:56 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.96%EV -4.97%E -2.63%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 13:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.57%EV -0.908%E -0.185%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.42%EV -3.83%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.48%E -2.91%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.98%E -1.52%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 13:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.98%E -3.20%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -2.93%E -0.611%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -5.98%E -3.20%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 13:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -5.98%E -3.20%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.02%EV -9.14%E -2.97%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 13:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -3.94%E -0.830%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.95%EV -5.96%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-02 13:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.95%EV -5.96%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-02 13:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 13:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 13:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -12.44%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-02 13:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -6.99%E -3.78%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -12.44%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-02 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.91%EV -7.49%E -4.07%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.18%EV -7.99%E -1.76%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.91%EV -9.44%E -3.07%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-02 13:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.71%EV -7.49%E -4.07%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -11.02%E -2.50%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-02 13:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.71%EV -7.49%E -4.07%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -11.02%E -2.50%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-02 13:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -7.99%E -4.37%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -3.94%E -0.830%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.13%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -7.99%E -4.37%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -2.93%E -0.611%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 13:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -7.99%E -4.37%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -10.01%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.99%E -4.37%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -11.02%E -2.50%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-02 13:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -7.99%E -4.37%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -12.44%E -2.87%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-02 13:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.68%EV -8.49%E -4.67%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.00%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.15% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.35% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.50% | 0.3% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.94% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79% | 0.7% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.07% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |