Language:English
Italy v Turkey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Italy (Local)
Prediction 69.08%1.45fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -8.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.12%69.04%69.05%70.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.4075.19%73.40%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Turkey (Visit)
Prediction 12.39%8.07fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.341%
Kelly +0.388%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 8.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.31%12.37%12.45%13.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.547.508.3014.29%13.26%13.33%12.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.53%5.40fair odd
EV +1.91%
Edge +0.348%
Kelly +0.425%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.41%18.59%18.50%20.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.555.075.005.5021.98%19.72%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Italy (Local): 69.08%; Turkey (Visit): 12.39%; Draw: 18.53%. For Turkey (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.07. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.10%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.32%EV +2.83%E +0.341%K +0.388%G +0.011% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -11.06%E -2.30%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.05%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.31%EV +2.83%E +0.341%K +0.388%G +0.011% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.64%EV -15.69%E -3.45%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.94%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.92%EV +0.356%E +0.044%K +0.050%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 18.14%EV -1.42%E -0.268%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.94%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.92%EV +0.356%E +0.044%K +0.050%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 18.14%EV -1.42%E -0.268%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.25%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +1.91%E +0.348%K +0.425%G +0.008% | 3.1% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.25%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +1.91%E +0.348%K +0.425%G +0.008% | 3.1% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.25%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +1.91%E +0.348%K +0.425%G +0.008% | 3.1% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 12:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 14:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-05 14:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -8.12%E -6.11%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -8.12%E -6.11%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -0.883%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 14:31 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.61%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 7.99I 12.52%NM 12.02%EV -1.01%E -0.126%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 18.37%EV -3.09%E -0.591%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.27%EV -2.12%E -0.269%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.47%EV -2.72%E -0.518%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-05 09:26 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.26%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.27%EV -2.12%E -0.269%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.47%EV -2.72%E -0.518%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-05 09:20 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.24%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.16%EV -3.36%E -0.431%K -0.494%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.60%EV -5.50%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 12:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.43%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.27%EV -3.98%E -0.514%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -3.98%E -0.514%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 12:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 14:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.12%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -2.72%E -0.518%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 12:41 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -2.72%E -0.518%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 13:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.31%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.31%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.31%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.31%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.31%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 12:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -2.72%E -0.518%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-05 12:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.94%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.56%EV -6.43%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.82%EV -4.67%E -3.38%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -11.98%E -2.52%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 15:16 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -7.43%E -5.55%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -2.72%E -0.518%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -7.08%E -0.944%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -9.21%E -1.88%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 14:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.92%EV -8.12%E -6.11%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.56%EV -9.56%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.52%EV -8.28%E -1.67%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.63%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -10.18%E -1.40%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.41%EV +0.059%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 12:41 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.36%E -3.91%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.99%EV -10.80%E -1.50%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 12:41 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.94%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -9.21%E -1.88%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 12:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.94%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -9.21%E -1.88%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 12:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.74%E -4.99%K -19.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.06%E -2.30%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.06%E -2.30%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.06%E -2.30%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 14:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%EV -8.12%E -6.11%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -3.65%E -0.701%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 12:41 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -7.43%E -5.55%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -7.43%E -5.55%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 13:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -7.43%E -5.55%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.35%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -14.76%E -3.21%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 12:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.36% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |