Language:English
Israel v Republic of Ireland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Israel (Local)
Prediction 34.41%2.91fair odd
EV +1.18%
Edge +0.401%
Kelly +0.608%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 2.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.28%34.64%34.37%37.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.702.9440.00%36.74%37.04%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Republic of Ireland (Visit)
Prediction 35.79%2.79fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.93%35.76%35.69%38.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.602.7041.67%38.73%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.504%
Kelly -0.723%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%29.60%29.94%31.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.143.3034.48%32.06%31.85%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Israel (Local): 34.41%; Republic of Ireland (Visit): 35.79%; Draw: 29.80%. For Israel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.28%EV +1.18%E +0.401%K +0.608%G +0.007% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.96%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.75%EV -4.94%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.94%EV -1.92%E -0.673%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.83%EV -3.38%E -1.25%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.94%EV -1.92%E -0.673%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.83%EV -3.38%E -1.25%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.51%EV -2.61%E -0.921%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.19%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.30%EV -6.73%E -2.15%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.28%EV -3.64%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.54%EV -3.38%E -1.25%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.18%EV -5.24%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.64%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.64%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -5.36%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.19%EV -8.75%E -3.43%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -5.36%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -14.11%E -5.88%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -5.36%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 18:01 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 18:01 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 18:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-27 18:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -12.09%E -4.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -12.09%E -4.10%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.26%EV -9.46%E -3.74%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-27 18:22 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -9.49%E -3.61%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.74%EV -11.25%E -4.54%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.83%E -3.75%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-27 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -13.96%E -5.59%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -1.66%E -0.504%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-27 17:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -13.96%E -5.59%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -3.15%E -0.970%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-27 17:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.13% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75% | 0.3% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.13% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75% | 0.3% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.13% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75% | 0.3% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |