Language:English
Greece v Netherlands
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Greece (Local)
Prediction 30.59%3.27fair odd
EV +2.47%
Edge +0.739%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.74%30.49%30.66%31.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.3533.90%32.09%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Netherlands (Visit)
Prediction 41.80%2.39fair odd
EV -0.937%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.684%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.80%41.98%41.68%44.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.232.3747.62%45.13%44.84%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.557%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.35%27.53%27.66%28.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.393.403.5530.77%29.51%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greece (Local): 30.59%; Netherlands (Visit): 41.80%; Draw: 27.61%. For Greece (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV +2.47%E +0.739%K +1.05%G +0.026% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -1.98%E -0.557%K -0.776%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV +2.47%E +0.739%K +1.05%G +0.026% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -1.98%E -0.557%K -0.776%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV +2.47%E +0.739%K +1.05%G +0.026% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -1.98%E -0.557%K -0.776%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.83%EV +1.86%E +0.559%K +0.799%G +0.015% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.04%EV -8.88%E -4.07%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.12%EV -2.25%E -0.637%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV -0.584%E -0.180%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.33%EV -4.28%E -1.87%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.85%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -0.584%E -0.180%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -0.584%E -0.180%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.30%EV -9.71%E -4.50%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -0.584%E -0.180%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.30%EV -9.71%E -4.50%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -0.584%E -0.180%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.30%EV -9.71%E -4.50%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -2.11%E -0.661%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.20%EV -4.28%E -1.87%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.61%EV -3.36%E -0.960%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.11%E -0.661%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -10.55%E -4.93%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.11%E -0.661%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -10.55%E -4.93%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -2.11%E -0.661%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -11.39%E -5.37%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -2.11%E -0.661%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -11.39%E -5.37%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -2.11%E -0.661%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -11.39%E -5.37%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -3.64%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -4.87%E -1.56%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.80%EV -0.937%E -0.395%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.11%EV -5.02%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.36%E -0.960%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -12.22%E -5.82%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -3.36%E -0.960%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.17%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -12.22%E -5.82%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -6.70%E -2.20%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.29%EV -5.12%E -2.25%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:38 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -6.70%E -2.20%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -11.39%E -5.37%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.43%EV -7.01%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.53%EV -7.22%E -2.15%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.28%EV -7.31%E -2.41%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.85%EV -3.03%E -1.30%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 18:38 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 18:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.36%E -0.960%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 18:36 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.36%E -0.960%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 18:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.23%E -2.74%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.76%E -3.31%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.76%E -3.31%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.76%E -3.31%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96% | 0.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.02% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |