Language:English
Greece v Germany
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Greece (Local)
Prediction 22.54%4.44fair odd
EV +5.96%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.096%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%22.63%22.54%24.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.184.204.7025.97%23.94%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Germany (Visit)
Prediction 53.09%1.88fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.35%52.98%53.12%55.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.761.8359.88%56.69%56.82%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.36%4.10fair odd
EV +0.864%
Edge +0.209%
Kelly +0.275%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.38%24.38%24.34%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.854.1427.78%25.93%25.97%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greece (Local): 22.54%; Germany (Visit): 53.09%; Draw: 24.36%. For Greece (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.96%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV +5.96%E +1.27%K +1.61%G +0.096% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -0.111%E -0.027%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV +5.96%E +1.27%K +1.61%G +0.096% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -0.111%E -0.027%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV +1.45%E +0.322%K +0.414%G +0.006% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.62%EV -10.27%E -6.08%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -2.55%E -0.637%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07%EV -0.804%E -0.183%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.65%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -2.55%E -0.637%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -0.804%E -0.183%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -12.29%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -0.804%E -0.183%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.50%E -3.09%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -12.29%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.03%EV -1.25%E -0.286%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.91%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.06%EV -2.30%E -0.574%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.25%EV -1.93%E -0.444%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.37%EV -5.50%E -3.09%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.38%EV +0.864%E +0.209%K +0.275%G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-10-04 18:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -1.93%E -0.444%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.17%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.17%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -1.93%E -0.444%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -10.81%E -6.43%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54%EV -3.06%E -0.711%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.54%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%EV -1.33%E -0.328%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-04 18:14 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -3.06%E -0.711%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.28%EV -4.74%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 18:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -3.06%E -0.711%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -3.06%E -0.711%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.88%EV -11.34%E -6.79%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.46%EV -3.73%E -0.875%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.87%EV -5.50%E -3.09%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.68%EV -1.33%E -0.328%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -4.19%E -0.985%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 18:36 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.55%E -0.637%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.65%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -2.55%E -0.637%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.30%EV -6.56%E -3.73%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.30%EV -6.56%E -3.73%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.30%EV -6.56%E -3.73%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -9.74%E -5.73%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.20%EV -6.44%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -9.74%E -5.73%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 18:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -2.84%E -1.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.90%EV -2.84%E -1.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.55%E -0.637%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.55%E -0.637%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 13:21 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -2.84%E -1.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 18:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -12.29%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-04 18:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -12.08%E -3.10%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.54%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -13.20%E -3.43%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 18:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -13.20%E -3.43%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -13.20%E -3.43%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.24%EV -6.56%E -3.73%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.41% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58% | 1.0% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.41% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58% | 1.0% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.41% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58% | 1.0% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |