The School of Odds
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Gibraltar v Andorra

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00 UTC

Final: Gibraltar 0–0 Andorra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gibraltar (Local)

Prediction 25.29%3.95fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -0.925%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%25.25%25.35%26.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.703.8529.41%27.14%27.03%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andorra (Visit)

Prediction 38.03%2.63fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%38.13%38.00%39.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.422.5243.48%41.26%41.32%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 36.68%2.73fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.23%36.62%36.65%38.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.532.502.6542.02%39.60%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gibraltar (Local): 25.29%; Andorra (Visit): 38.03%; Draw: 36.68%. For Gibraltar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.70%EV -6.48%E -2.54%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:30
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.16%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.16%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.16%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:46
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.16%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:46
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.16%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:46
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -2.64%E -0.685%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.16%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:45
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.98%E -4.99%K -8.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 25.46%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.99%EV -4.15%E -1.65%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.54%EV -3.91%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-27 15:59
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -5.17%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.91%E -1.97%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.64%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -4.64%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 15:59
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -4.64%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.91%E -1.97%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 15:55
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -6.48%E -2.54%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-27 15:54
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.02%EV -7.96%E -3.29%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.10%EV -9.04%E -3.65%K -6.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 15:25
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.02%EV -7.96%E -3.29%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.10%EV -9.04%E -3.65%K -6.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 15:25
TAB🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.72%E -3.63%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 15:25
Suprabets🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 25.85%EV -7.19%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.65%EV -4.15%E -1.65%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%EV -4.64%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 15:59
1xBet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 25.97%EV -7.44%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.17%EV -5.29%E -2.13%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -2.81%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 15:54
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.69%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.99%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV -6.48%E -2.54%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-27 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -7.69%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.52%E -5.44%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.22%EV -12.71%E -5.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-27 15:45
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-27 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -10.62%E -4.52%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -4.64%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -10.22%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.97%EV -10.62%E -4.52%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.64%E -1.79%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-27 15:15
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.04%EV -5.29%E -2.13%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.60%EV -7.58%E -3.01%K -4.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 15:58
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -10.14%E -4.14%K -7.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-27 15:54
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -12.52%E -5.44%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -10.14%E -4.14%K -7.00%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-27 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 26.70%EV -13.26%E -3.87%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -6.81%E -2.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.92%EV -6.48%E -2.54%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-27 15:39
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -14.02%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.48%E -3.98%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -8.31%E -3.32%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-27 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.85%0.5%2026-09-27 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.25%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.57%0.5%2026-09-27 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.25%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.57%0.5%2026-09-27 15:55