The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Germany v Serbia

2026-10-01 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Germany (Local)

Prediction 70.77%1.41fair odd
EV -5.87%
Edge -4.42%
Kelly -17.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.91%70.77%70.24%72.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.291.3380.00%77.64%77.82%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Serbia (Visit)

Prediction 11.56%8.65fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +0.449%
Kelly +0.505%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.46%11.56%11.55%12.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.978.009.0014.81%12.54%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.67%5.66fair odd
EV +0.708%
Edge +0.124%
Kelly +0.151%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.22%17.67%18.21%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.215.105.7021.28%19.19%19.61%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Germany (Local): 70.77%; Serbia (Visit): 11.56%; Draw: 17.67%. For Serbia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.65. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 9.00, producing a positive expected value of +4.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -8.00%E -6.15%K -26.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV +4.04%E +0.449%K +0.505%G +0.020%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -2.83%E -0.514%K -0.628%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 13:30
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.41%E -7.35%K -33.61%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV +1.15%E +0.131%K +0.148%G +0.002%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.38%EV +0.708%E +0.124%K +0.151%G +0.001%7.1%2026-09-25 13:29
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -8.70%E -6.75%K -30.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -1.74%E -0.205%K -0.232%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -2.83%E -0.514%K -0.628%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-25 13:34
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -5.87%E -4.42%K -17.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.52%E -0.940%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.66%E -2.33%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-25 13:50
LeoVegas🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.64%EV -7.29%E -5.56%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -7.52%E -0.940%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -8.13%E -1.56%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-25 13:40
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.23%EV -9.41%E -7.35%K -33.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -7.52%E -0.940%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.22%EV +0.708%E +0.124%K +0.151%G +0.001%8.2%2026-09-25 13:30
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.00%E -6.15%K -26.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -7.52%E -0.940%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -11.66%E -2.33%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-25 13:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.27%EV -10.12%E -7.97%K -37.48%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.52%EV -10.41%E -1.34%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -13.43%E -2.74%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-25 13:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.41%EV -10.12%E -7.97%K -37.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -19.08%E -2.73%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.99%EV -13.43%E -2.74%K -3.44%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-25 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.91%EV -11.53%E -9.23%K -46.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.76%EV -21.97%E -3.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.33%EV -16.96%E -3.61%K -4.58%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-25 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.