Language:English
Germany v Serbia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Germany (Local)
Prediction 80.13%1.25fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -10.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.14%80.03%80.08%81.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2287.72%84.83%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Serbia (Visit)
Prediction 7.01%14.26fair odd
EV +19.23%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.231%
assuming max odds 17.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.71%7.02%7.18%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5013.2713.0017.009.52%7.54%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.85%7.78fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.354%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.72%12.95%12.74%14.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.187.108.0015.38%13.92%14.08%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Germany (Local): 80.13%; Serbia (Visit): 7.01%; Draw: 12.85%. For Serbia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.26. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.53%EV -4.64%E -3.90%K -24.43%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +19.23%E +1.13%K +1.20%G +0.231% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.77%EV -2.31%E -0.304%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.44%EV -4.64%E -3.90%K -24.43%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.06%EV +12.21%E +0.763%K +0.814%G +0.099% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.50%EV -0.383%E -0.049%K -0.057%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.88%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.04%EV +12.21%E +0.763%K +0.814%G +0.099% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.08%EV +2.83%E +0.354%K +0.404%G +0.011% | 3.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.84%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV +12.21%E +0.763%K +0.814%G +0.099% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.27%EV -15.16%E -2.30%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.45%EV +5.20%E +0.347%K +0.371%G +0.019% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.45%EV +5.20%E +0.347%K +0.371%G +0.019% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.45%EV +5.20%E +0.347%K +0.371%G +0.019% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.33%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +5.20%E +0.347%K +0.371%G +0.019% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.35%EV -8.74%E -1.23%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 18:01 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +5.20%E +0.347%K +0.371%G +0.019% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -16.45%E -2.53%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.85%E -6.82%K -52.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +5.20%E +0.347%K +0.371%G +0.019% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.16%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.52%EV +1.69%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.32%EV -8.74%E -1.23%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -3.04%E -2.51%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 14.30I 6.99%NM 6.74%EV +0.291%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 7.09I 14.10%NM 13.60%EV -8.87%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -1.81%E -0.129%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -6.81%E -0.939%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-01 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -1.81%E -0.129%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.37%EV -8.65%E -7.59%K -61.78%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -1.81%E -0.129%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-01 18:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV -6.81%E -0.939%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 18:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.64%E -3.90%K -24.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 17:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-01 16:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -16.45%E -2.53%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -16.45%E -2.53%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -16.45%E -2.53%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -5.44%E -4.61%K -30.24%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -16.45%E -2.53%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -8.65%E -7.59%K -61.78%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -8.83%E -0.679%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -12.33%E -0.987%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -12.33%E -0.987%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.46%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.37%EV -12.33%E -0.987%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -15.84%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -15.84%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -15.84%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -10.02%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 18:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.13%EV -6.24%E -5.34%K -36.73%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -19.35%E -1.68%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV +2.83%E +0.354%K +0.404%G +0.011% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.52%EV -2.24%E -1.83%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -22.85%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.77%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 18:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.31%EV -3.04%E -2.51%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -22.85%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -6.81%E -0.939%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -22.85%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.36%EV -7.05%E -6.07%K -44.04%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -22.85%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -3.60%E -0.480%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.36%E -2.51%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -6.81%E -0.939%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.84%E -3.20%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.36%E -2.51%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -6.81%E -0.939%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 18:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.53% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.53% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.53% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.53% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 18:35 |