The School of Odds
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Estonia v Luxembourg

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:01 UTC

Final: Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estonia (Local)

Prediction 32.99%3.03fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -0.796%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.03%33.07%32.94%34.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.832.852.9637.74%35.27%35.09%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luxembourg (Visit)

Prediction 34.31%2.91fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.779%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.44%34.30%34.38%35.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.702.702.8538.46%36.99%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.70%3.06fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.945%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.18%32.63%32.68%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.883.0037.04%34.90%34.66%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estonia (Local): 32.99%; Luxembourg (Visit): 34.31%; Draw: 32.70%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -1.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Suprabets🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.03%EV -2.36%E -0.796%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.35%EV -5.31%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.62%EV -7.78%E -2.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 15:57
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.33%EV -3.02%E -1.03%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -5.31%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.23%EV -6.47%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.10%EV -4.34%E -1.49%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.68%EV -2.22%E -0.779%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.22%EV -5.49%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 15:56
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -4.34%E -1.49%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 16:00
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.52%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 15:55
BetRivers🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.52%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 15:53
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.52%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 15:51
Bally Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.52%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 15:51
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 15:50
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.07%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 15:59
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -11.70%E -4.33%K -6.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 15:55
Bovada🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -4.99%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.38%EV -7.71%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.51%EV -9.74%E -3.53%K -5.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 15:57
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.32%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.32%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 15:55
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 15:56
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:51
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.40%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.75%EV -7.78%E -2.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 15:55
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.40%EV -5.98%E -2.10%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.75%EV -7.78%E -2.76%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 15:56
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.65%E -2.05%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 16:00
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -9.08%E -3.43%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -10.80%E -4.15%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -6.80%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-03 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -10.80%E -4.15%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -6.80%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-03 15:55
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -10.80%E -4.15%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -6.80%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-03 15:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.20%EV -7.96%E -2.85%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.18%EV -7.02%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.62%EV -7.12%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:59
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -1.89%E -0.630%K -0.945%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -10.80%E -4.15%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.52%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-03 16:01
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.11%E -3.86%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -5.81%E -2.02%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-03 15:45
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -10.07%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-03 16:00
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-03 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -12.58%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.73%EV -6.68%E -2.46%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.64%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.44%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89%0.4%2026-10-03 15:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.56%0.7%2026-10-03 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.86%1.1%2026-10-03 16:00