The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Estonia v Iceland

Kickoff: 2026-10-06 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estonia (Local)

Prediction 17.11%5.85fair odd
EV +0.940%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.192%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.69%17.12%17.04%18.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.465.505.9020.00%18.32%18.18%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iceland (Visit)

Prediction 59.13%1.69fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -6.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.25%59.04%59.20%59.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6265.36%63.49%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.397%
Kelly -0.524%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.00%23.85%23.76%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.954.1427.78%25.57%25.32%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estonia (Local): 17.11%; Iceland (Visit): 59.13%; Draw: 23.76%. For Estonia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.940%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV +0.940%E +0.159%K +0.192%G +0.002%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -14.47%E -4.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 13:50
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV +0.940%E +0.159%K +0.192%G +0.002%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -14.47%E -4.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 13:50
1xBet🎯5.81I 17.21%NM 16.70%EV -0.600%E -0.103%K -0.125%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.88%EV -4.20%E -2.59%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.43%EV -1.64%E -0.397%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-05 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.68%EV -1.63%E -0.283%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.93%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.39%EV -2.59%E -0.633%K -0.837%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 13:50
Unibet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 14:15
TABtouch🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 14:15
Casumo🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 14:15
BetRivers🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 14:15
Bally Bet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 14:15
BetUS🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.71%EV -4.19%E -0.749%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -6.16%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 13:51
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 13:51
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 15:11
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -5.98%E -3.76%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 14:15
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 13:51
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.35%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 13:50
Bovada🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -8.34%E -5.38%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -7.35%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 13:55
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.33%EV -6.57%E -4.16%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -12.10%E -3.27%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 13:40
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -8.34%E -5.38%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -9.72%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 13:51
Suprabets🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.66%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -8.93%E -5.80%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.86%EV -8.77%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 13:52
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -9.52%E -6.23%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.72%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 13:54
betano_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -5.90%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -9.52%E -6.23%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.72%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 13:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -7.61%E -1.41%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.95%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 13:50
Neds🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -7.61%E -1.41%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.95%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 13:51
Betclic (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -7.61%E -1.41%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -8.34%E -5.38%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.59%EV -7.35%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 15:10
ReBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -9.33%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.35%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-05 15:10
theScore Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -10.18%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.46%EV -5.98%E -3.76%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.35%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 15:10
LeoVegas🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -10.18%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 15:10
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -10.18%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.10%EV -5.98%E -3.76%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.72%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 13:55
BetMGM🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -10.18%E -1.94%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.77%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.35%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-05 13:50
MyBookie.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -11.04%E -2.12%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.64%EV -7.75%E -4.97%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -8.53%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 15:14
Winamax (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -12.75%E -2.50%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.97%EV -7.75%E -4.97%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -4.97%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 15:10
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -14.46%E -2.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -5.39%E -3.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 14:35
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -14.46%E -2.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -9.72%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-05 13:51
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.46%E -2.89%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -7.16%E -4.56%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.91%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-05 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09%0.7%2026-10-05 13:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09%0.7%2026-10-05 13:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09%0.7%2026-10-05 13:51