Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

England v Czech Republic

2026-10-06 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 78.87%1.27fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -4.46%
Kelly -26.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.38%78.91%79.04%79.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.2087.72%85.62%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Czech Republic (Visit)

Prediction 6.46%15.49fair odd
EV +9.77%
Edge +0.575%
Kelly +0.611%
Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.45%6.51%6.31%7.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.5014.8015.0017.008.70%6.76%6.67%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.67%6.82fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +0.384%
Kelly +0.448%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.11%14.58%14.65%15.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.296.257.0016.95%15.89%16.00%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 78.87%; Czech Republic (Visit): 6.46%; Draw: 14.67%. For Czech Republic (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.49. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 17.00, producing a positive expected value of +9.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.98%EV -6.93%E -5.87%K -38.50%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +9.77%E +0.575%K +0.611%G +0.060%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -11.98%E -2.00%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-01 08:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.98%EV -6.93%E -5.87%K -38.50%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +9.77%E +0.575%K +0.611%G +0.060%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -11.98%E -2.00%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-01 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.98%EV -6.93%E -5.87%K -38.50%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +9.77%E +0.575%K +0.611%G +0.060%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -11.98%E -2.00%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-01 13:45
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.12%EV -7.72%E -6.60%K -45.40%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV +9.77%E +0.575%K +0.611%G +0.060%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -11.98%E -2.00%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 08:09
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.08%EV -5.35%E -4.46%K -26.76%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV -3.14%E -0.210%K -0.225%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -4.65%E -0.715%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 08:10
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.93%E -5.87%K -38.50%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -3.14%E -0.210%K -0.225%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -4.65%E -0.715%K -0.845%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 08:20
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -7.72%E -6.60%K -45.40%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -3.14%E -0.210%K -0.225%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.65%E -0.715%K -0.845%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 08:19
LeoVegas🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -7.72%E -6.60%K -45.40%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -3.14%E -0.210%K -0.225%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.65%E -0.715%K -0.845%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 11:21
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -7.72%E -6.60%K -45.40%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -3.14%E -0.210%K -0.225%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.65%E -0.715%K -0.845%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 11:21
MyBookie.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.59%EV -7.72%E -6.60%K -45.40%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.34%EV -6.37%E -0.440%K -0.472%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -10.52%E -1.72%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 11:24
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.56%EV -7.72%E -6.60%K -45.40%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -9.60%E -0.686%K -0.739%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -0.982%E -0.145%K -0.171%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-01 08:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.45%EV -10.08%E -8.85%K -72.03%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.39%EV -9.60%E -0.686%K -0.739%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.16%EV -13.45%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-01 11:25
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -9.30%E -8.08%K -61.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -16.06%E -1.24%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV +2.69%E +0.384%K +0.448%G +0.012%8.9%2026-10-01 07:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -9.30%E -8.08%K -61.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV -22.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -8.32%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-01 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.38%EV -10.08%E -8.85%K -72.03%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.67%EV -25.74%E -2.24%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.95%EV -13.45%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-01 11:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-01 08:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-01 08:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-01 08:00