The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Denmark v Norway

2026-11-17 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denmark (Local)

Prediction 38.00%2.63fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.00%38.00%38.00%39.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.432.402.5041.67%41.24%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norway (Visit)

Prediction 38.00%2.63fair odd
EV -0.440%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.272%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.13%38.00%38.00%38.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.582.6241.67%39.33%38.83%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.00%4.17fair odd
EV -8.80%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%24.00%24.00%25.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.793.803.8026.67%26.40%26.32%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Denmark (Local): 38.00%; Norway (Visit): 38.00%; Draw: 24.00%. For Norway (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.62, with an expected value of -0.440%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -5.00%E -2.00%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.440%E -0.168%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -10.00%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-11 12:49
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -8.80%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -1.20%E -0.462%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.80%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-11 12:50
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -8.80%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -3.10%E -1.22%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.80%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-11 12:50
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.80%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.80%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.80%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-11 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.92%1.14I 87.72%NM 33.33%163.2%2026-11-11 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 32.75%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.92%1.14I 87.72%NM 33.33%163.2%2026-11-11 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.94%166.3%2026-11-11 14:10

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.