The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Czech Republic v Spain

2026-11-12 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Czech Republic (Local)

Prediction 8.00%12.51fair odd
EV +27.93%
Edge +1.75%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.520%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.11%8.01%7.88%9.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.0012.0016.0010.00%8.33%8.33%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spain (Visit)

Prediction 78.80%1.27fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -17.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.48%78.74%78.88%80.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.191.2289.29%84.23%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.20%7.57fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.300%
Kelly +0.344%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.84%13.24%13.24%14.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.207.037.007.7516.13%14.23%14.29%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Czech Republic (Local): 8.00%; Spain (Visit): 78.80%; Draw: 13.20%. For Czech Republic (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.51. 13 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 16.00, producing a positive expected value of +27.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 6.11%EV +27.93%E +1.75%K +1.86%G +0.520%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.84%EV -4.65%E -3.84%K -22.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.04%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%2.2%2026-11-10 12:04
Svenska Spel🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 6.11%EV +27.93%E +1.75%K +1.86%G +0.520%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.84%EV -4.65%E -3.84%K -22.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.04%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%2.2%2026-11-10 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.41%EV +19.93%E +1.33%K +1.42%G +0.284%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.82%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-10 10:35
1xBet🎯13.60I 7.35%NM 7.11%EV +8.74%E +0.643%K +0.694%G +0.061%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.95%EV -4.65%E -3.84%K -22.14%G +0.000%7.48I 13.37%NM 12.93%EV -1.24%E -0.166%K -0.192%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-09 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯13.50I 7.41%NM 7.11%EV +7.94%E +0.588%K +0.635%G +0.050%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.93%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV -2.30%E -0.311%K -0.359%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-09 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.05%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.62%EV -0.318%E -0.042%K -0.049%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 13:00
BetAnything🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.05%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.62%EV -0.318%E -0.042%K -0.049%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 13:55
betfred_uk🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-10 05:25
Bally Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-10 12:05
Unibet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-10 11:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-10 12:05
TAB🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -8.59%E -7.41%K -53.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 09:55
BoyleSports🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV +3.94%E +0.303%K +0.329%G +0.013%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-09 20:14
Betsson🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.59%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.75%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-10 09:50
NordicBet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.59%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.75%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-10 09:50
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -10.88%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-10 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -10.88%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-10 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -10.88%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-10 12:00
TABtouch🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -10.88%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-10 12:00
BetRivers🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -0.055%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -10.88%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-10 12:00
BetUS🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-10 10:50
Unibet (UK)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-09 20:09
888sport🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-09 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-09 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-09 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-10 14:34
SportsBet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.44%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.82%EV -4.28%E -0.590%K -0.685%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-10 14:34
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -4.05%E -0.338%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -7.80%E -6.67%K -45.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-10 14:35
Pinnacle🎯11.78I 8.49%NM 8.03%EV -5.81%E -0.493%K -0.539%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.50%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.59I 13.18%NM 12.46%EV +0.210%E +0.028%K +0.032%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-10 06:15
Betclic (FR)🎯11.75I 8.51%NM 7.59%EV -6.05%E -0.515%K -0.563%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 79.66%EV -11.74%E -10.48%K -97.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-10 09:40
PMU (FR)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.81%EV -8.05%E -0.700%K -0.767%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.14%EV -9.38%E -8.15%K -62.52%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.04%EV -15.50%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-10 12:00
theScore Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -12.05%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-09 20:10
Bovada🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -12.05%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-09 22:00
Betway🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -12.05%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 01:50
LeoVegas🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -12.05%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.44%E -4.53%K -27.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-09 20:10
William Hill🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -12.05%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-09 16:15
MyBookie.ag🎯10.60I 9.43%NM 8.65%EV -15.25%E -1.44%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.03%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.32%EV -15.50%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-10 08:19
BetMGM🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV -16.05%E -1.53%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-10 08:30
DraftKings🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -16.05%E -1.53%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-09 20:10
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.51%EV -16.05%E -1.53%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 77.73%EV -9.38%E -8.15%K -62.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -14.18%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-09 18:14
ReBet🎯10.30I 9.71%NM 8.84%EV -17.65%E -1.71%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.48%EV -6.23%E -5.23%K -32.77%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.68%EV -18.14%E -2.93%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-10 08:14
Neds🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.04%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-10 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.04%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-10 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.04%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-10 14:25
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -20.04%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -3.86%E -3.17%K -17.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -7.58%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-10 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -20.04%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.72%EV -7.01%E -5.94%K -38.97%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.99%EV +2.32%E +0.300%K +0.344%G +0.008%7.6%2026-11-10 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.88%EV -20.04%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 79.28%EV -11.74%E -10.48%K -97.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -0.978%E -0.130%K -0.151%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-10 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.78%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%0.6%2026-11-10 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.78%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%0.6%2026-11-10 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.78%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%0.6%2026-11-10 13:45
Matchbook◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.21%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.55%2.2%2026-11-10 15:55

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