Language:English
Croatia v England
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Croatia (Local)
Prediction 20.45%4.89fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +0.841%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.77%20.35%20.54%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.624.505.1022.73%21.66%22.22%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
England (Visit)
Prediction 55.40%1.80fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -4.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.42%55.51%55.36%57.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.691.7560.98%59.18%59.35%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.15%4.14fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.444%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.13%24.13%24.10%25.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.883.894.2027.78%25.74%25.71%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Croatia (Local): 20.45%; England (Visit): 55.40%; Draw: 24.15%. For Croatia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.89. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.05%EV +4.29%E +0.841%K +1.05%G +0.045% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.82%EV -6.92%E -4.12%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.13%EV +1.42%E +0.338%K +0.444%G +0.006% | 2.9% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%EV +4.29%E +0.841%K +1.05%G +0.045% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.73%EV -5.26%E -3.08%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.34%EV +2.24%E +0.449%K +0.561%G +0.013% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.55%EV -5.26%E -3.08%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.11%EV -3.17%E -0.790%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV +2.24%E +0.449%K +0.561%G +0.013% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -8.03%E -4.84%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.89%EV +0.198%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.34%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -0.995%E -0.243%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.89%EV +0.198%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.34%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -0.995%E -0.243%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV +0.198%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.17%EV -6.37%E -3.77%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.46%EV -6.31%E -1.63%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 15:52 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.89%EV -1.23%E -0.255%K -0.322%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.51%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.60%EV -1.72%E -0.422%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.51%EV -1.85%E -0.385%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.09%EV -9.14%E -5.57%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.58%E -5.20%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 15:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -2.87%E -0.604%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -3.89%E -0.828%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -3.04%E -1.74%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.95%EV -2.20%E -0.544%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-03 06:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -3.89%E -0.828%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.95%EV -5.26%E -3.08%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -9.45%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.23%EV -4.91%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.34%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -7.03%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 15:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -6.92%E -4.12%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 12:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -6.92%E -4.12%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -6.92%E -4.12%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-03 13:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.70%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 15:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.92%E -4.12%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -7.03%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -8.58%E -5.20%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -3.41%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 15:32 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.76%EV -6.37%E -3.77%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -9.45%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -6.92%E -4.12%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.65%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.65%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.65%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.41%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -7.03%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.41%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -7.03%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.72%EV -8.03%E -4.84%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 12:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -9.45%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -8.03%E -4.84%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -8.03%E -4.84%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -8.03%E -4.84%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -7.98%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.48%E -4.48%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -13.07%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -4.15%E -2.40%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -4.71%E -2.74%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -7.03%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.03%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -5.26%E -3.08%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.82%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.78% | 0.1% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.57% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35% | 0.2% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.22% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.22% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |