The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bulgaria v Estonia

Kickoff: 2026-09-29 18:45 UTC

Final: Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bulgaria (Local)

Prediction 49.92%2.00fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.94%50.20%49.91%52.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.861.9258.82%54.28%53.76%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estonia (Visit)

Prediction 21.20%4.72fair odd
EV +11.31%
Edge +2.15%
Kelly +2.66%
Growth +0.301%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.02%20.97%21.12%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.524.405.2524.39%22.15%22.73%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.88%3.46fair odd
EV -0.663%
Edge -0.193%
Kelly -0.272%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.89%28.83%28.97%30.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.223.4433.33%31.28%31.06%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bulgaria (Local): 49.92%; Estonia (Visit): 21.20%; Draw: 28.88%. For Estonia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.86%EV -10.64%E -5.95%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV +11.31%E +2.15%K +2.66%G +0.301%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-29 18:39
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.86%EV -10.64%E -5.95%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV +11.31%E +2.15%K +2.66%G +0.301%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-29 18:40
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.86%EV -10.64%E -5.95%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV +11.31%E +2.15%K +2.66%G +0.301%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-29 18:40
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.58%EV -10.64%E -5.95%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.46%EV +8.13%E +1.59%K +1.98%G +0.161%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-29 18:38
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.48%EV -12.64%E -7.22%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV +6.01%E +1.20%K +1.50%G +0.090%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.15%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-29 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.33%EV -13.64%E -7.88%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV +3.89%E +0.794%K +0.998%G +0.039%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.48%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-29 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.33%EV -13.64%E -7.88%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV +3.89%E +0.794%K +0.998%G +0.039%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.48%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-29 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.06%EV -15.13%E -8.90%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.44%EV +1.77%E +0.369%K +0.466%G +0.008%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -13.37%E -4.46%K -6.68%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-29 18:40
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -10.14%E -5.63%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV +0.711%E +0.150%K +0.190%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.59%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-29 18:09
Suprabets🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.91%EV -5.15%E -2.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -0.349%E -0.074%K -0.094%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.91%EV -8.46%E -2.67%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 18:38
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -6.65%E -3.56%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -2.47%E -0.537%K -0.686%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -7.59%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.03%EV -6.15%E -3.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.08%EV -3.53%E -0.776%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.89%EV -0.663%E -0.193%K -0.272%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-29 18:35
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.57%EV -4.15%E -2.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.96%EV -3.74%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.47%EV -6.73%E -2.08%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-29 18:44
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -6.15%E -3.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.59%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.59%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 18:35
Bovada🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.43%EV -7.15%E -3.84%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -4.59%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -11.93%E -3.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-29 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.14%E -5.63%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -4.59%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.37%E -4.46%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-29 18:40
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -6.65%E -3.56%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -6.71%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 18:38
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -6.15%E -3.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.71%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-29 18:35
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -6.15%E -3.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.71%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-29 18:38
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.54%EV -6.65%E -3.56%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -6.71%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-29 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.14%E -5.63%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -6.71%E -1.52%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -13.37%E -4.46%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-29 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.66%EV -7.77%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-29 18:40
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.51%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -8.19%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.42%EV -5.15%E -2.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.69%EV -8.19%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 18:44
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.09%EV -7.65%E -4.13%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -8.19%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-29 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -10.14%E -5.63%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -8.19%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -13.37%E -4.46%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-29 18:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.65%E -4.13%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.83%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.53%EV -6.44%E -1.99%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-29 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.64%EV -9.14%E -5.02%K -11.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -8.83%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-29 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.89%EV -8.15%E -4.43%K -9.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.89%E -2.33%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.51%EV -7.02%E -2.18%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-29 18:38
TAB🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.94%EV -6.65%E -3.56%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -9.89%E -2.33%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.48%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-29 18:40
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -10.95%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -10.95%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.65%E -2.44%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -10.95%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-29 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.65%E -4.72%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.95%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-29 18:44
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.65%E -4.72%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.95%E -2.61%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.59%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-29 18:35
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.09%EV -6.15%E -3.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -13.07%E -3.19%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-29 18:39
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.01%EV -6.65%E -3.56%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -13.07%E -3.19%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -7.59%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-29 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-09-29 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-09-29 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-09-29 18:40